Politics and the Art and Science of Crash Investigation
Should art be mentioned here? Art is the expression or application of human creative skill and imagination. Surely this applies to investigation. It is only through imagining the sequence of what happened that what actually happened can be determined. Theoretically, scientific experimentation takes place in a vacuum, or at least in a neutral area where the laws of nature can be observed to run in a natural fashion, after which, conclusions are drawn. Attempts are made for the hypothesis to be untainted by factors such as “opinion,” “bias,” and “prejudice.” But it could not exist without human imagination.
But imagination is far from “imaginary.” Accident investigation is not scientific experimentation, but it is supposed to be based, like science, on handling conclusions based on neutrally observed but hard facts. The problem of course, is that the accidents being investigated do not occur in the careful measured neutrality of a lab, but in the messy, busy, interactivity of the real world. The search for the truth is a crucial thing, one of interest not only to the victims or families of the victims, but also the insurance companies, banks, aircraft manufacturers, airlines, future airline passengers…the list grows. The climate in which investigations take place is far from neutral, in spite of attempts for investigators to be professional.
If you look at the Comoros crash you can see the effects of clashes between the governmental institutions of Comoros and France, replete with name-calling, bias, and politics. This is equally true in the Air France 447 case, where political pressures exert invisible pressures. Consider the stake the country has in Air France, and in Airbus. In any investigation, it may be that the lives and careers of some very powerful people hinge on how an investigation goes, and even more so when a country like France adds the aspect of criminal proceedings.
The well-known world regulatory organizations over aviation industry trade groups (IATA, ICAO, AEA, ATA) have developed highly regulated procedures for investigation. We can only hope that the highly regulated and complex process of investigations can continue in as even a keel as possible, in spite of the turbulence coming from all interested parties. The world waits for answers, but politics inevitably set the stage, and like the observed but unseen air currents in weather, play a part, whether invisible or obvious. While there are some protections in place, (for example, NTSB reports can not be used as evidence lest the integrity investigation be compromised), we can never fully know what goes on behind the scenes.
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They say that time heals all wounds. And in a sense that may be true even for the families who lost loved ones in a plane crash, as long as we can interpret “healing” to mean that time eventually eases the sharpness of the pain of loss. And while that degree of healing is something that happens with people because our nervous systems are built for survival and allow us to adapt to even agonizing loss, the same thing is not true of mechanical equipment. While people bathed in time may get a little better, black boxes, radar components and computers that sit in salt water for a long period of time do not get better. In fact a scientist could present us a ratio of the time an item spends in ocean water : accessibility of evidence in terms of a diminishing ratio of accessibility. Or in other words, the longer evidence soaks in salt water, the more diminished our capacity to analyze it. Not that the same ratio applies across the board, of course–the frailty of paper in salt water is not the same as metal. And rice paper would differ from bond which would differ from cardstock. But in general, one can certainly say the longer evidence sits in the ocean, the more degraded that item will be. Ocean-time won’t heal evidence; but it sure helps damage or destroy it. So any evidence that we find now has been quietly degrading for almost 2 years.
So now we have the news that the fourth search for the black boxes has turned up something even more stupendous–they found identifiable remains. Great hosannas and praise by the submarine-load is being lavished by the audience of a world who is transfixed by the news. How amazing it is that on this fourth search for a needle in a haystack, after two years time and ocean currents, and countless storms and tides, with each passing moment making discovery that much less likely, after all this, a needle is found. But who is the world praising? The searchers, certainly. The searchers have as they say these days “mad” skills. But let’s not praise the sponsors of the search.
If not for the sponsors quitting, this discovery would have been found two years ago, or sometime between then and now. Because let us not forget the sponsors of the search, Air France and Airbus—both of whom could well afford to continue—have THREE TIMES quit. Quit the search, leaving key questions unanswered. Quit the search, the black boxes with their priceless knowledge, unfound. Quit the search, and left the families dissatisfied, and without closure.
Nevermind that this is such a timely find. Days after a judge takes the high road of French law and declares Airbus and Air France open to a criminal investigation for the crash of Air France 447, suddenly we have such a “feel good” media moment. Bodies found. Good job, searchers. Bad job Air France. Bad job Airbus.
If you had not given up, (and let’s face it, your reasons were purely financial,) what is lost would have been less dispersed by currents and time. And perhaps what is more important, the families would not be having their wounds reopened. Because these are not live family members found. This will not be true joy and true relief. This is just re-opening that sense of grief and pain, which is torturous after the anesthetic of two years. For those families whose lost are still lost. And for those families now able to receive their two lost loved ones, the grief and pain will be renewed. It will force them to relive the deaths all over again. Because even when they’re found, they’re still lost.
The question remains, why did you ever quit the search? This Pandora’s box of pain could have been closed and laid to rest by now, if you had not quit. Shame on you.
Costuma-se dizer que o tempo cura todas as feridas. Em certo sentido, isso até pode ser verdade para as famílias que perderam entes queridos em acidentes aeronáuticos, contanto que interpretemos essa “cura” como um alívio à agudeza da dor e do sofrimento. E embora esse nível de cura seja algo possível às pessoas porque nosso sistema nervoso é projetado para sobreviver, permitindo que nos adaptemos à mais agonizante perda, o mesmo não é verdade para equipamentos mecânicos. Ainda que pessoas banhadas pelo tempo possam ficar um pouco melhores, caixas-pretas, peças de radar e computadores abandonados em água salgada por um longo tempo não ficam nem um pouco melhor. Na verdade, um cientista poderia nos apresentar uma relação em função do tempo que um item permanece em baixo d’água, demonstrando uma taxa decrescente de acessibilidade das evidências. Em outras palavras, quanto mais tempo uma evidência fica submersa, menor é nossa capacidade de analisá-la. Isso não significa que uma mesma taxa se aplique a todas as evidências – é claro que a fragilidade do papel na água não se equipara à do metal. De modo geral, contudo, pode-se afirmar que quanto mais tempo um item permanecer no mar, mas degradado ele ficará. O tempo no mar não trará cura às evidências, mas certamente ajudará a danificá-las ou destruí-las. Logo, qualquer evidência que encontremos agora terá enfrentado uma lenta degradação por quase dois anos.
Agora somos surpreendidos pela notícia de que a quarta busca pelas caixas-pretas encontrou algo ainda mais estupendo: corpos que podem ser identificados. Graças e louvores pelas descobertas submarinas têm sido dadas pelo público mundial que se mantém atento às notícias. Como é incrível que nessa quarta busca de uma agulha no palheiro, já após dois anos, com correntes oceânicas e diversas tempestades e marés, e com o passar do tempo tornando qualquer descoberta cada vez mais improvável, uma agulha tenha sido encontrada. E quem está sendo saudado pelo mundo? As equipes de busca, com certeza. Elas demonstraram habilidades verdadeiramente fenomenais. Mas não vamos enaltecer os patrocinadores das buscas.
Se os patrocinadores não tivessem desistido, essas descobertas teriam sido feitas há dois anos, ou em algum momento entre a data do acidente e hoje em dia. Por isso, não vamos esquecer que os patrocinadores das buscas, Air France e Airbus, que bem podiam ter arcado com sua continuidade, abandonaram-nas por três vezes. Abandonaram as buscas, deixando importantes perguntas sem resposta. Abandonaram as buscas, deixando perdidas as caixas-pretas e suas valiosas informações. Abandonaram as buscas, deixando famílias insatisfeitas e sem uma conclusão.
Não importa que essa descoberta seja tão oportuna. Dias após um juiz aplicar os rigores da lei francesa e declarar que a Airbus e a Air France podem ser investigadas criminalmente pelo acidente com o voo 447 da Air France, temos de repente um “agradável” momento na mídia. Corpos são encontrados. Bom trabalho, equipes de busca. Grande falha, Air France. Grande fracasso, Airbus.
Se vocês não tivessem desistido (e, sejamos francos, seus motivos foram puramente financeiros), as perdas teriam sido menos dispersadas pelas correntes marítimas e pelo tempo. E talvez, ainda mais importante, as famílias não teriam suas feridas reabertas. Como não estamos falando do encontro de sobreviventes, essas descobertas não trarão verdadeiro alívio e verdadeira felicidade. Elas apenas servirão para recrudescer aquela sensação de dor e sofrimento, que é uma tortura após dois anos de anestesia. Para aquelas famílias cujos entes queridos não serão encontrados, e para as demais que agora receberão os restos de seus familiares, a dor e o sofrimento serão renovados. Isso as forçará a reviver as mortes mais uma vez.
Porque, mesmo encontrados, eles continuam perdidos.
A dúvida permanece: “Por que vocês desistiram das buscas?” Se vocês não tivessem desistido, essa Caixa de Pandora de dor já poderia ter sido fechada e enterrada a essa altura. Vocês deviam se envergonhar!
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Time flies, does it not? Though at times it seems the year has dragged by day by weary day, minute by weary minute, it hardly seems possible that it has already been a year since June 30, 2009. I debated whether or not to post this, because I wonder if it is not simply a reminder of pain. But then, it is also a chance to remember another life, when days were brighter.
Everyone at our office joins me in sending the families our kindest regards, wishing you what we hope has been a year of healing. You might ask how you could have healing without your loved one who perished this time last year.
From personal experience, I know that it has not been easy. I believe that when you lose a loved one, through a terrible tragedy like the Yemenia Crash or by any cause at all, our loved one would want us to continue living to the fullest. I’m certain that my grandson, whom we lost many years ago at age 15 in a motorcycle accident, wanted this for my daughter (his mother) and for the rest of the family. We still miss him. We still do a family birthday at the cemetery. Somehow we manage to carry on because he’s still in our lives, in our hearts, every day of every year.
I know you carry your loved ones in your heart too. Some days their presence feels very close. Those are the times, special times, that I believe they remain with us, out of sight perhaps, but never out of reach.
They say that living in the hearts we leave behind is not to die. If that is so, then let us all be a miser of our memories, for that is coin we will never spend, so we can always hold our loved ones and their memories close.
Blessings and memories to you.
GH
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Remember that old Herodotus misquote inscribed on the James A Farley Post Office Building: “Neither snow nor rain nor heat nor gloom of night stays these couriers from the swift completion of their appointed rounds.“?
The iconic postman is viewed as being the superman of civil servants, intrepid deliverers, come what may. (For those of you born after 1997, the mythos of the intrepid postal carrier predates the movie. Bless Kevin Costner’s heart)
That iconoclastic perspective will stand unchallenged by pilots if the FAA goes ahead in its move to impose stringent regulations limiting pilot flight time. The bill includes some $8 billion for airport construction and pilot scheduling limitations designed to lessen the incidence of accidents related to pilot fatigue.
However the effectiveness of this bill may be challenged by an amendment exempting some pilots (those flying for nonscheduled carriers and charter flights carrying commercial cargo) from the amendments intended “fatigue protection.”
Are cargo pilots and charter pilots built of sterner stuff? Are they eating their Wheaties and consuming super-charged vitamins? Are they really supermen who are not affected by the debilitating fatigue of lesser men? Is the biology of this select group of pilots different from all other pilots so that they are immune?
What do you think?
Maybe, just maybe, this new amendment is designed to sacrifice safety concerns in favor of profit.
No kidding.
There is no place for exemptions in this bill.
However, that said, one hopes common sense will be applied in military situations. Say, for example, it is wartime. Can you see some 2011 era John Wayne pilot watching the second hand on his stopwatch and scrubbing a mission based on a peacetime standard? Is some squad somewhere going to have to stop in mid-mission due to a peacetime regulation? How doubly stupid would it be to give any faction opposing us the foreknowledge of such controlling factors. It’s the 2011 equivalent of the British sending their troops out in formation, to be picked off by guerilla fighting Americans. Are we the stupid ones with targets on our chests now?
Let pilots flying commercial aviation have their reasonable hours, and leave the heroism and exemptions up to the military.
And to mailmen too, of course—long may they be by snow, rain, heat and gloom of night, “unstayed.”
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A single-engine plane crashed at Lake Berryessa between Pleasure Cove Marina and Markley Cove Resort in Napa County, California, on the morning of May 8th.
The two men aboard the Icon A5, identified as Jon Murray Karkow, 55, and his passenger Cagri Sever, 41, were killed in the crash. Both were employees of Icon Aircraft.
The cause of crash is being investigated.
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