Boeing Analyzes the Numbers Game

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    Egyptair Flight MS804 Almost A Year Later

    Elements of this image are furnished by NASA

    Egyptair Flight MS804 (AKA EgyptAir Flight 804) was a Paris to Cairo flight that ended in the Mediterranean on May 19, 2016. Sixty-six people lost their lives: three security crew, fifty-six passengers, seven crew.

    Egyptian authorities published a progress report on 28/06/16 that the BEA repaired the recorders. On 17/06 that the Technical Investigation Committee of the A320 accident studied FDR data as well as performing time correlation between FDR and CVR data and cockpit voice recordings before the occurrence of the accident where the existence of a “fire” was mentioned. That report did not determine the reason or location where that fire occurred. Smoke was reported during the flight in the bathroom and the avionics bay.

    The investigation has been fraught with controversy. On 22 May, 2016, M6 (French TV) reported that a pilot told Cairo air traffic control about smoke in the cabin, and the pilot consequently made an emergency descent.

    On May 20th 2016 The Aviation Herald received information from three independent channels, that ACARS (Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System) messages with following content were received from the aircraft:

    • 00:26Z 3044 ANTI ICE R WINDOW
    • 00:26Z 561200 R SLIDING WINDOW SENSOR
    • 00:26Z 2600 SMOKE LAVATORY SMOKE
    • 00:27Z 2600 AVIONICS SMOKE
    • 00:28Z 561100 R FIXED WINDOW SENSOR
    • 00:29Z 2200 AUTO FLT FCU 2 FAULT
    • 00:29Z 2700 F/CTL SEC 3 FAULT
    • no further ACARS messages were received.

    No sooner did the report come out that the Egyptian Civil Aviation Ministry dismissed it as false.

    One truism I have found in accident investigation is that it takes time to find the truth. Another is that facts can be misleading. Reportage from official sources moves slowly; reportage from commercial, so-called “news,” or social sources is frequently speculative, unsourced, or purely imaginary. Sometimes it is actually correct. It is difficult to tell the difference. Contradictions are a frequent finding, such as this:

    • Le Figaro reported that no explosives were found on Egyptair flight MS804 French victims’ bodies. The flight crashed in the Mediterranean in 2016.
    • On Dec 15th 2016 Egypt’s Civil Aviation Authority announced that forensic examination on behalf of the Accident Investigation Commission found traces of explosives with some of the human remains recovered. In accordance with Egypt law, the states prosecutor was informed, and a technical commission formed by the prosecution office opened their investigation into the crime.

    How does a close reader respond to a statement that “traces of explosives were found WITH human remains?” A close reader finds more questions. With the remains is not ON the remains. But it could be either way since we are dealing with languages. In English, WITH the remains could mean a bomb was floating in the water near the bodies, or ashes, or gasoline or TNT residue. And what constitutes near? Inches? Miles? It all is relative. Or if the original report is loosely translated, did the original document use a preposition such as ON the remains? And then, there are the forensic questions. Were explosive remains washed off of bodies that were submerged in the ocean?

    If the case goes to court, the court will want to know if something failed on the plane, and if so, what it was. Manufacturers of failed components are considered responsible parties. No matter what the cause, international treaty determines carrier responsibility to the victims of the crash.

    The determination of failed components provides additional responsible parties. The discovery of a bomb would make airport security one of the potential responsible parties. In addition, international treaty provides guidelines for what carriers owe to the families. (Which treaty is involved depends on which treaty/treaties the involved country/countries are signatory to. If it sounds like it can get complicated, you are correct.)

    It has been nearly a year since the accident, and though some things may be believed in the court of public opinion to be one way or another, questions remain unanswered. How grievous and how difficult for the families that must wait so long to find out what brought about this tragedy that took their loved ones.

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    Wildfire Crash Update


    While on it’s third run from Helispot 44, at an elevation 5,935 feet, to Helispot 36, at an elevation of 2,516 feet, ferrying firefighters from a remote mountain site in the Shasta-Trinity forest, the Sikorsky S-61N helicopter crashed killing 9.

    Fortunately, the voice-data recorder was determined to be intact despite fire damage. The investigation so far has found that the chopper’s main rotor lost power during takeoff. After the rotor malfunction, witnesses say the helicopter struck trees and slammed into the hillside. Four of the thirteen passengers–three fire fighters and the co-pilot–survived. The co-pilot remains hospitalized.

    Read profiles of the victims here

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  • Memorials, etc.

    Most of the time we only post the crash as it happens, unless there’s an event that happens that really needs more dissemination. Usually the mailbox is full of news and reports, requests, pleas for attention and the occasional argument. I suppose because we’re in the process of moving the blog–and because last week was a really busy week–and because I’m fighting off an infection–this week’s mailbox is full of things that didn’t just happen and can’t be easily put into a file.

    So the way it goes today…there’s a two-seater Vans RV light aircraft that flipped over in the North Weald airfield in Essex in the UK. The pilot hurt his neck and back. (In these cases, I always feel like it’s a miracle if they get out of a crash alive, so some bumps and bruises are like getting out of a coffin scot– free–particularly when the pilot is in his seventies.)

    And of course, we’ve already talked about the Piper Navajo Chieftain that fell out of the sky into a North Las Vegas house. Five people in the house got out–one died. Its eerily like the same crash that happened also in Vegas, also this week. Apparently in this case, when his engine was running roughly, the pilot decided to go back to the airport and when he did, he hit trees and power lines, crashed on the house and died. Is there a pattern here? Anyway, they’re investigating.

    There’s a memorial service at Southern Utah University to remember the nine people from Cedar City clinic Southwest Skin and Cancer Inc who died in the crash along with the pilot. The Air Force is remembering 9 men who died in the Davao crash. There were actually 11 lost–but they apparently didn’t know two of them were on the plane; and they will be remembered separately. I almost posted the details but really, I’m overwhelmed by all those names. I don’t have any idea where Davao is, but grief is grief, and I am sure we all mourn with them. And I will mourn twice for the two men they forgot to mourn the first time around.

    In fact, the only new news looks like it is the 1976 Rockwell International 112A whose pilot got pulled out of the water off of Gasparilla Island. 69-year-old Glen Koedding took a trip to the hospital but he’s ok. They don’t say if the plane survived.

    Maybe if we’re really lucky, a day will go by and we won’t have any crash reports. Wouldn’t that be something?

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    Air Traffic Controllers Audio Released

    4 Marine Corps officers have lost their jobs. 9 individuals are being disciplined. The audio is damning, but who does it damn?

    What: F/A-18 Military Jet from the carrier Abraham Lincoln landing at Marine Corps Air Station Miramir
    Where: San Diego neighborhood
    When: DEC 8
    Who: the pilot, who was part of a training squadron, ejected. He had been aiming the plane at a deserted canyon to avoid homes and the 805 Freeway. 4 Individuals in the house are dead. The pilot has been transported to Balboa Naval Hospital
    Update: F/A-18 Crash in San Diego

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    Recent Airline Accidents since the Tam Air Crash in Sao Paulo

    30 November 2007; Atlasjet MD83; near Keciborlu, Turkey:
    Domestic flight from Istanbul to Isparta disappeared from radar screens. The crew had requested permission to land and subsequently crashed in mountainous terrain near the town of Keciborlu 7.5 miles from the Isparta airport. All seven crew members and 50 passengers were killed.

    16 September 2007; One-Two-Go Airlines MD82; Phuket, Thailand:
    Scheduled domestic flight from Bangkok (DMK) to Phuket (HKT). After landing heavy rain and poor visibility , the aircraft skidded off the runway, impacted trees, and caught fire. At least 89 deaths, including 85 of the 123 passengers and five of the seven crew members.

    20 August 2007; China Airlines 737-800; Naha, Japan:
    After landing at Naha on the island of Okinawa, the left engine caught fire and the crew initiated an emergency evacuation. All 157 passengers (including two toddlers) and eight crew members survived. This event did not result in a passenger death.

    9 August 2007; Air Moorea Twin Otter; Moorea, Frech Polynesia:
    Scheduled domestic flight from Moorea (MOZ) to Tahiti (PPT) crashed into the ocean shortly after takeoff. The single crew member and all 19 passengers were killed.

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  • Home Owners Associations-Just Gotta Hate ‘Em

    Remember July 10, 2007 when we all heard about the plane falling out of the sky and demolishing a house and killing some of the residents? It was the Woodard house, and Joe Woodard’s wife Janise and her infant son, Joseph were killed in the fireball.

    So now he is in the process of rebuilding–with changes because he could not bear the house to be the same.

    Now his Home Owner’s Association has put him on notice, saying that his shingles don’t match the neighbors and they don’t like his new home’s elevation. He has to fix the inconsistencies or risk litigation, He says he’s tried to reach them, but can’t get thru.

    They must be some real first class gems. Do you think they had their eyes on poor Joe’s Nashcar settlement?

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