Foreign Aviation Tragedies, Thoughts on Compensation

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    Policy Changes

    In George’s Point of View


    What does it mean that the Indian Civil Aviation Ministry is formulating new policies?

    The existing policies are not working, but we wonder if the new policies are being rewritten to fit in better with the workings of business and the status quo. Will the changes begin to address safety issues, pilot training, and crucial concerns of passengers rather than stakeholders in the business end?

    Will the policies be conceived and written by people involved in the mechanics of planes and technology, or will they reflect an infrastructure concerned only about maintaining a “bottom line?”

    The current perspective has resulted in dangerous new rest rules. (Pilots are not allowed to get fatigued till they have completed 10 hours of flying during the night; and the airline’s director of operations can extend that time another hour and a half.) The work ceiling for Indian pilots is 25% higher than that set for US or British pilots.

    Committees of experts should be based on expertise in successful operations, have proper credentials and their input should reflect current legitimate data and scientific findings. Otherwise, the changes will be reflected inevitably in more fatal crashes.

    So we wonder what does it mean? We have to wait until February when results are released.

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    Air France Airbus Flight 447: Information Withheld

    George’s Point of View

    The next big question is whether or not information is withheld.

    That’s what some families are wondering, and that’s part of the reason why they’ve hired lawyers. Plaintiffs have access to more information; and they want to know what reason Air France has for not replacing a known Airbus problem, the pitot probes (airbus speed sensors.)

    What has been published is error messages based on inconsistent readings taken by the pitot probes.

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  • FAA and DOT Sued For Not Acting On Recommendations

    It all started 15 years ago, when the NTSB first issued a list of safety recommendations. Fast forward 15 years, and the US Department of Transportation (DOT) and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) still hasn’t taken those recommendations.

    Tuesday, Feb. 24, 2009– Newark, N.J. news conference on aviation Spokesman Mary Schiavo, former inspector general for the U.S. Department of Transportation, blamed the FAA for lagging in safety improvements.

    National Air Disaster Alliance/Foundation is suing federal transportation officials, believing the lack of adoption of safety practices has resulted in accidents like the Continental Connection Flight 3407 crash near Buffalo.

    We just posted some of those safety issues;
    Or you can take a look at some NTSB’s issues in their report NTSB Icing Safety on Aircraft Ground Icing

    Mommy and Daddy are fighting.

    But what they’re really doing is shifting the blame to the other guy so when the Buffalo NY lawsuits come down, it’ll be the other guy’s wallet that gets sacked. D’ya think?”

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  • Thoughts on Human Error

    George’s Point of View


    Humans are amazing inventors, capable of envisioning a “possible” for every “impossible,” creating incredibly complex feats of engineering, in the name of Hughes and Learjet and McDonnell Douglas and Lockheed and a hundred others whose names won’t be forgotten. Even amazing inventors can engineer lemons, or fail to see every possible contingency. But the possibility of error goes beyond human error. Humans are not responsible for the fact that rust exists. Do you blame Einstein for the fact of relativity? It’s the dichotomy of reality: for every up there’s a down. Everything creates its own opposite. “Fixed” allows the possibility of “broken” to exist.

    Thinking logically along those lines…we can speculate and plan, study and test, polish and revise, but does that make our planning and scheduling invincible? Even if it were perfect (and I’m not saying it is, because I am speaking of things in general), things fall apart. The nature of reality is change. Change happens. Plan for contingencies 1-3000 and the one that will happen is contingency # 3001.

    We have to be careful sometimes when we start talking about human error. Unfortunately the container where the human error begins is life itself, because in theory EVERY thing can be blamed on human error. The patient died, blame the doctor. Nevermind that the patient was 112 and suffered every illness known to man.

    In aviation, gunnysacking the humans happens too. Maybe they didn’t cause the lightning but they flew through it. We humans are pretty amazing creatures but we don’t control nature. We can plan and schedule all we want, but if you are going to fly during rain, you’re going to encounter thunderstorms. So let us say that the storm is responsible for the event. Do we blame the pilot for flying through the storm? Do we blame the arrogance of the plane manufacturer who claims the plane is invincible and can fly through anything?

    Pilots are human. We have the full range of the spectrum, from the sublime, Sully, to the ridiculous (Colgan Air’s Marvin) Renslow. The problem that a hero like Sully presents to the rest of us is that he creates the philosophy that well trained pilots should be able to solve any emergency.

    But take for example Air France 447… could the pilots have been able to cope with flight speed problems caused by the performance of flawed parts?

    Is the failure to recover from an unexpected event (wind shear, potential conflicts with other planes, broken planes) pilot error? If we put human beings in an easy chair of an automated job in some point-and-click fly-by-wire captain seat, when the crisis happens, the built-in redundancies in flight systems fail and the pilot can’t snap out of humanness to turn into Superman when the wire breaks, is that pilot error?

    Our pilots now have to deal with cost-cutting industry practices causing fatigue and poor training.

    Even if the ultimate safety device in the airplane is the well-trained pilot, guess what? Pilots are human. Humans are capable of mistakes. They are capable of mistakes when operating planes.

    Let us not forget that pilots fly planes that were crafted by humans, maintained by humans, orchestrated by human ATC, landing on airports designed by humans.

    There is no one single answer. I have seen it a hundred times, and each case is unique unto itself, with one generality that can apply.

    Human error occurs at all levels, and rarely alone.

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  • Fast News; Slow Conclusions

    George’s Point of View

    On this blog here, we are in the practice of posting quick news as we find it–the who, what, where, when, why of it all. Details are compressed so that we can present that quick notification of what just happened; and frequently, even the (minimum of two) news sources behind our reports do not agree.

    Technically, the reality of any event could be compressed into such a quick format, because there is an ultimate truth which exists. But, it takes years for investigators to get to that ultimate truth. And when it does happen, the “why” is not going to be a single line or paragraph. It is going to be composed of hundreds of pages of documentation of all the facts that are revealed in the course of investigation.

    Investigation is a painstaking process at best even if the accidents occur with witnesses and are recorded on video tape and multiple media perspectives such as the the black boxes. (And many times those records do not exist or are lost.) The investigative teams look at the obvious records, and then they go through the wreckage with a fine-toothed comb, examining concrete evidence, and use this evidence to put together the most accurate reconstruction of events possible. And frequently there are opposing perspectives of how something happened. Sometimes of the actual facts of the incident, only a partial percentage of concrete evidence is found; and sometimes it takes months or years to surface. When a new piece of evidence does surface, the entire conclusion may end up revised. (Think of the of the Titanic disaster which occurred in 1912 whose initial investigation closed that same year; and whose rediscovery in 1985, lead to a reinvestigation which actually begun in 1994, and salvage beginning in 1995.) Thus the investigative process can take an indeterminate length of time.

    So we do apologize to our readers for putting anything at all in the “why” area of our records, because we well know that the why and how of what happened is simply not going to be concluded for a long, long time. We hope that it is understood that our presentation of the “why” is a cursory summary at best, but that the final conclusion that will be years in coming is the result of conscientious, painstaking, scrupulous investigation by seasoned experts.

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    No Mayday, then Gone

    I could speculate here about what caused the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, but that is all it would be: speculation. One can look at the type of plane, the weather, and various circumstances, but the truth is that the devil is in the details, and we just don’t know the details. The investigation will turn them up; the investigation can be a long road down a circular path.

    It makes it more difficult when there was no distress call. No mayday. Think of this: if something happens and you’re on a plane rapidly losing altitude—or with catastrophic issues which could be anything on a plane from a drunk grandpa to a bomb on board to a bad repair failing, to a sudden system failure due to frozen pitot tubes, what is the first thing that you are going to do if you’re part of the flight crew? That’s right—the first thing will be to fix the issue, and stay in the air. The last thing to do after the crisis is handled is to call ATC and let them know what’s going on.

    But because there was no distress call, we can assume that whatever happened happened fast. And now the wildest speculation of all is that the two people with fake passports were terrorists carrying a bomb. Do we need to go down that thought path? There are plenty of things that could have gone wrong although the 777 has a a stellar safety record.

    Now too, there is even speculation where the plane went down, apparently. There’s an oil slick approximately where the teams are searching. Maybe they’re right. Maybe under that slick, there’s a beacon to hear.

    Still, I keep hoping there’s a raft somewhere full of survivors.

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