The Headlines Say Sullenburger is Returning to the Cockpit.

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    The Investigation of Sukhoi Superjet’s Crash holds Answers to Many Questions


    Click to view full size photo at Airliners.net
    Contact photographer Egor Naumenko

    Today I read an article saying that the SuperJet that crashed on a promotional flight boils down to one question: pilot or plane? I have to disagree. It is not that simple. It takes a lot of coordinating systems to get a plane in the air, and it usually takes more than one error to take a plane down.

    If there is a problem with the plane, it is most likely the investigation will reveal it, and anything that comes out before the investigation is just speculation. (How much of the investigation will be made public often depends on the transparency policies of government, however.) So I am speculating here.

    Russian Aviation does have a lot riding on the success of this entry into the global aviation marketplace so we know it’s not a paper airplane they folded together in ten seconds or as many months. We suspect that the quality of the teams performing the design, construction, training and troubleshooting that went into the jet’s creation is about par for contemporary jet design. Which is to say the teams are probably very good. The plane has fly-by-wire technology but Sukhoi consults with Boeing on a “step-by-step project management … fully explored and translated into business reality by SCAC.”

    There are a number of problems that are coming to light with this flight.

    • Only the cockpit voice recorder was found. The FDR was not found.
    • The Emergency Locator Transmitter (which goes off, like an airbag, on hard impact) did not go off. The Sukhoi only has one(instead of two, which is the norm) Emergency Locator Transmitter which uses 121.5,203 Mhz. Indonesia receivers operate at 121.5,406 MHZ
    • The Terrain map is recorded in the panes database and shows on a display in vertical and horizontal forms. (Did this plane, which was a substitute plane) have an updated terrain map?)
    • The Enhanced Ground Proximity Warning System/EGPWS should have gone off with terrain warnings after descending to 6000 feet, and these warnings should be in the black box. Wait…no black box was found.
    • Was this substitute plane compliant with all airworthiness guidelines and laws?
    • Multifunctional Transport Satellites (MTSAT) data revealed that the weather on the Salak Mountain at the time was bad. Cloud and raincover at Salak Mountain was 100 percent.
    • The Halim-Pelabuhan Ratu flight plan was considered safe, but on descent to 6000 feet, the pilot detoured from the flight plan.

    Sometimes investigations take the easy path and just blame the pilot. I’ve seen happen a hundred times before, when the pilot was blamed simply because he was not longer able to defend his actions. And while pilots are only human, and sometimes do make mistakes, sometimes those mistakes are caused by corporate pressures, pressure to meet deadlines, fuel quotas, scheduling, etc. What is pressure of corporate expectations on a joy flight pilot? Do we know if he was under orders to showcase the plane’s agility, possibly even to make the very move that crashed the plane?

    The pilot, 57 year old Alexander Yablontzev was experienced. He was Sukhoi’s chief test pilot and had spent more than 14 thousand hours flying. After retiring as Lieutenant Colonel from the Russian Air Force, he flew for Transaero and had a lot of hours. But the fatal flight was his first time flying in Indonesia. Did the crash occur because he was flying a strange, possibly wrongly mapped terrain, and recklessly “buzzing” the peak of Mount Salak to show off the plane’s versatility?

    No answers here. I’m just saying that the question is not so simply put.

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    Fly Keystone Cops, no, I mean Fly India

    George’s Point of View

    Once upon a time, there were two runways: Runway 27 and Runway 14. They crossed each other. It didn’t matter that they crossed each other because the KING of the runway (Air Traffic Control) never allowed planes in a collision course. In Air Traffic Control school, they teach that a collision course would be a very bad thing.

    So one day, an Air India A310 was on Runway 27, and waiting for input from Air Traffic Control. And, simultaneously, a Jet Airways Boeing 737-800, flight was waiting on Runway 14.

    Somehow, both planes started to take-off.

    Air Traffic control recognized that the very bad thing was about to happen, and cancelled one of the take-offs.

    Fortunately both pilots were awake, saw the what was happening and both pilots rejected takeoff.

    (Fortunately, they teach that a collision course is a bad thing in Pilot school too. Nice juxtaposition, that.)

    It’s a good day when no one dies from the accident that could have happened.

    It’s not a happy ending yet, because it won’t be over until the investigation is over. No one died…but it remains to be seen if heads may still roll.

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  • Clunker Airlines

    George’s Point of View

    When times are hard, we drive clunkers. Our old cars get older and rattier, but they’re paid for. It takes more money and more maintenance to keep them going, but when we weigh the merits of getting a new car, the weight of the new car note comes along with it, along with more expensive insurance to cover a more expensive car. So, is it any wonder that we take a sigh over the new car commercial, even as we open the car door and climb into last year’s model? (Or for some of us, last decade’s model.) So what if the tires are maypops and the bumper is held on with twist ties and it takes more than rubbing compound to get the scratches out? It gets us down the road.

    The problem is that airlines are having the same issues.

    Profits are down, fuel costs are going up, and even airlines have to pay for new planes. And unlike this year’s Lexus, new planes cost millions, even billions. This wouldn’t be so bad if planes were like cars, and the likeliest outcome for a junker is an inevitable call to AAA for a tow. Because, obviously, airplanes don’t just stop rolling when they quit. They fall out of the sky. And of course there are the lesser things that happen. Pieces of the fuselage fall off, or magically sport holes the size of footballs. Landing gears fail. They get stuck open or shut. Windshields crack for no known reason. Mysterious electrical fires play hide and seek inside the myriad of separate systems inside the cabin.

    So many airlines struggling to stay afloat are pushing their older aircraft to their maximum life span, saving the expense of a new note–but that is balanced with the greater expense of maintaining older planes. The cost of everything is going up. (Consider that the new airbags by themselves are going to cost well over $1000 per seat.) Fortunately the FAA is working harder at monitoring maintenance guidelines, and policing the skies. The future of the industry in fact, may be riding on FAA Reauthorization Act. (Take a look at our sidebar where we have links to the FAA Reauthorization Act

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    Aviation Oriented Jobs Projections

    Food for Sequestration thoughts:

    • Closing small airports.
    • Cut FAA Funding.
    • Cut 168 contractor-staffed air traffic control towers nationwide on April 1
    • Cut 21 (more) towers by Sept. 30.
    • Cut passenger and cargo capacity.
    • Cut Up to 132,000 aviation jobs.
    • Cut $80 billion a year from the nation’s gross domestic product
    • Cut two billion pounds of freight capacity

    Aviation Jobs are still in demand, but expect inevitable cuts especially with new hires.

    American Airlines advertising vacancies for 1,500 flight attendants and got 22,000 applications. US Airways got about 20,000 applications for 420 vacancies. Delta announced an opening for some four hundred flight attendants. Over 50,000 people applied for the job. According to AVjobs, a flight attendant makes between $14.50 and $20.49 per hour. An A & P Mechanic makes between $16.47 and $30 per hour. A mechanical engineer makes between $45,000 and $90,000 per year. A member of the flight crew makes between $24,000.00 and $100,000 per year. *


    United Airlines Extends SF International Maintenance Op Center Lease
    United Airlines is now committed for ten years to the San Francisco Airport area. UA and the San Francisco Airport Commission signed a ten year extension on the airline’s existing Maintenance Operations Center at San Francisco International Airport. The 130-acre San Francisco Maintenance Operations Center employs about 3,500 maintenance workers. According to United’s senior VP of tech, “The lease extension on our San Francisco Maintenance Operations Center benefits our people, our customers and the Bay Area. United’s investment underscores our commitment to San Francisco, the Maintenance Operations Center and its role in supporting the industry’s premier trans-Pacific hub.”

    In George’s Point of View

    I agree with Harrison Ford.

    Harrison Ford said “Accidents are going to happen.”

    Accidents have been happening all along. Expect more of them.

    *Data from AV Jobs

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    No Mayday, then Gone

    I could speculate here about what caused the disappearance of Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370, but that is all it would be: speculation. One can look at the type of plane, the weather, and various circumstances, but the truth is that the devil is in the details, and we just don’t know the details. The investigation will turn them up; the investigation can be a long road down a circular path.

    It makes it more difficult when there was no distress call. No mayday. Think of this: if something happens and you’re on a plane rapidly losing altitude—or with catastrophic issues which could be anything on a plane from a drunk grandpa to a bomb on board to a bad repair failing, to a sudden system failure due to frozen pitot tubes, what is the first thing that you are going to do if you’re part of the flight crew? That’s right—the first thing will be to fix the issue, and stay in the air. The last thing to do after the crisis is handled is to call ATC and let them know what’s going on.

    But because there was no distress call, we can assume that whatever happened happened fast. And now the wildest speculation of all is that the two people with fake passports were terrorists carrying a bomb. Do we need to go down that thought path? There are plenty of things that could have gone wrong although the 777 has a a stellar safety record.

    Now too, there is even speculation where the plane went down, apparently. There’s an oil slick approximately where the teams are searching. Maybe they’re right. Maybe under that slick, there’s a beacon to hear.

    Still, I keep hoping there’s a raft somewhere full of survivors.

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    A word to #MH370 Families on the limitation of words

    In George’s Point of View

    A word to the families on the limitation of words.

    Pain has an end, but love interrupted has no end.

    If I could hold your hand, I would. Physics won’t let me reach through the page to hold your hand. I can not reach though the screen. I cannot whisper in the ear of all the families that I am here for you, even though here means a world away.

    If there is a time for all things, then now is the time to cry. Cry till all the tears are gone; then tomorrow there will be one less tear to cry, and the following day, one less. Until nothing is left but the rainbow of memory.

    The outpouring of empathy crosses nations. All the others who have known loss are sharing your grief. Grief is not one of those weights reduced by the number of shoulders bearing it. There is no way out from under grief—the only cure is living through it into the time of healing. So whatever it takes to choose life, let the healing begin. I know these words are less consolation than a kind touch, less than someone sitting beside you, holding your hand, providing a shoulder, an ear, a heart. You need not be desolate, alone, circling in on yourself. Mend what can be mended. When you need to speak, offer an ear. When you need help, offer a hand. Remember, this too shall pass. Remember what was good and celebrate it. Remember what was real, and let all else fall away. Let your heart be lifted. Let it be lighter from this moment on.

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