George’s Point of View
The latest in the Comorian aviation rumor mill is that sweet and gentle albeit elderly and perfectly innocent Yemenia Airbus 310 was shot down with a dastardly missile by the French Navy vessels performing maneuvers in the area of the accident a day before the plane crash. Nevermind that the plane was positively geriatric in plane years. Nevermind that it was already disallowed to fly in Europe. Nevermind that it was flying in weather so bad that rough winds had already fouled up the plane’s first pass at the runway.
One tends to doubt that the French Navy was performing maneuvers in the area in the kind of weather that doomed the landing of the Yemenia airbus. Maybe the “missile” was suspended in the air for a whole day while waiting for the Airbus. (Does the French Navy normally fire at Mitsamouli, Djomani, Ouemani or Ouela?)
Maybe if we focus our eyes on the French navy, no one will notice the state of Comorian aviation, airports, aviation safety measures and rescue procedures.
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Politics and the Art and Science of Crash Investigation
Should art be mentioned here? Art is the expression or application of human creative skill and imagination. Surely this applies to investigation. It is only through imagining the sequence of what happened that what actually happened can be determined. Theoretically, scientific experimentation takes place in a vacuum, or at least in a neutral area where the laws of nature can be observed to run in a natural fashion, after which, conclusions are drawn. Attempts are made for the hypothesis to be untainted by factors such as “opinion,” “bias,” and “prejudice.” But it could not exist without human imagination.
But imagination is far from “imaginary.” Accident investigation is not scientific experimentation, but it is supposed to be based, like science, on handling conclusions based on neutrally observed but hard facts. The problem of course, is that the accidents being investigated do not occur in the careful measured neutrality of a lab, but in the messy, busy, interactivity of the real world. The search for the truth is a crucial thing, one of interest not only to the victims or families of the victims, but also the insurance companies, banks, aircraft manufacturers, airlines, future airline passengers…the list grows. The climate in which investigations take place is far from neutral, in spite of attempts for investigators to be professional.
If you look at the Comoros crash you can see the effects of clashes between the governmental institutions of Comoros and France, replete with name-calling, bias, and politics. This is equally true in the Air France 447 case, where political pressures exert invisible pressures. Consider the stake the country has in Air France, and in Airbus. In any investigation, it may be that the lives and careers of some very powerful people hinge on how an investigation goes, and even more so when a country like France adds the aspect of criminal proceedings.
The well-known world regulatory organizations over aviation industry trade groups (IATA, ICAO, AEA, ATA) have developed highly regulated procedures for investigation. We can only hope that the highly regulated and complex process of investigations can continue in as even a keel as possible, in spite of the turbulence coming from all interested parties. The world waits for answers, but politics inevitably set the stage, and like the observed but unseen air currents in weather, play a part, whether invisible or obvious. While there are some protections in place, (for example, NTSB reports can not be used as evidence lest the integrity investigation be compromised), we can never fully know what goes on behind the scenes.
Pilot Fatigue Increases Flight Risk
George’s Point of View
Right now, the European Union allows pilots and cabin crews to work up to 14 hours straight, a situation which the president of the European Cockpit Association says is “a dangerous gamble with passengers.” A U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration pilot survey said 80% of pilots admit to have fallen asleep during a flight. Easa’s Moebus Report recommends lowering the max time to 13 day hours day and 10 night hours.
I would no more want to be in a plane piloted by an exhausted pilot than I would choose to drive myself when I’m sleepy. 14 hours straight is simply too long a time-span to be entirely safe.
Anniversary of Air France 447-Personal Consequences of Death on the Flying Brick
Elie Wiesal said “Because I remember, I despair. Because I remember, I have the duty to reject despair.”
It is not time to despair. It is time to remember. We are remembering Air France 447, and the families whose lives have forever changed. Families left behind have to deal with carrying on.
Experts say that there are five steps (called the Kubler-Ross model) of grief: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance.
After a year, or two, or three one might be able to say that families with tragedies to process have come to acceptance; but the model is not a hard truth. Those suffering grief may hopscotch between stages, or get stuck at any of them. And just as smells tend to refresh memory, so too can dates. And June 1 for Air France 447 families is one of those dates.
Maybe it is a blessing that everything changes. Maybe it is a blessing that the first moment of finding you have lost a loved one in a plane crash is not frozen in amber, to be felt always at the original intensity. It is inevitable that the depth of grief will fluctuate.
In the beginning, the deaths of those aboard the plane were shrouded in mystery. A black hole of mystery, in fact, one that swallowed up the craziest theories, from abductions, to terrorism, to aliens. The investigation marched on, to the tune of millions of dollars, and hundreds of investigators and professionals marched to that tune, working to uncover the puzzle pieces and put them together to shed light on what really happened. At least now, with the black boxes recovered, there are facts to deal with rather than crazy speculation.
But even facts will not change the reality. Those gone are still gone. At whatever stage you are experiencing it, the grief you feel is real. I have no advice for you. Anyway, advice comes across as condescending. But we all have suffered pain and grief and loss, and I can only hope for the families that you remember.
Remember the good things.
Remember mornings across your breakfast tables, the rush to begin the day, the slow times after the day is done.
Remember the moments spent together. Remember the depths as well as the peaks. Remember the places you went together, and when you revisit the places, you will revisit your loved ones.
The heart is not buried along with the victim. The heart goes on.
Airbus Forewarning. The Signs Were There.
Five days before the flight 447 accident, flight JJ 8054 TAM Airbus, (just like flight 447) en route from Rio to Paris on the same route (just like flight 447), had problems with turbulence (just like flight 447) in the region near the islands of St. Peter and St. Paul (just like flight 447).
A passenger on TAM flight JJ 8054, Helaine Patrícia Pinto Coelho, spoke publicly about her experience on that turbulent flight.
Apologies here for our translation from the Portuguese.
“I recall that followed the path of the aircraft by the screen that is in front of seats. When we leave the mainland, the northeast of the country, the plane began to shake, light warning of the tie belt and on-board service was suspended. Suddenly the thing started to get worse. I felt like a rag in an old washing machine.”Then, the
nozzle of the aircraft was down. “This happened two other times. People started to scream. Some vomiting. I do not know how long it lasted. To me it seemed an eternity, A lady who was beside me also despair. Crying, said she had a daughter. The pilot, when possible, give information about the flight, such as speed, altitude of the aircraft, and asked to be kept tied belts. ” Please find the original quote here in its entirety.
George’s Point of View
Sometimes we have fair warning, and never know it.
Helaine Patrícia Pinto Coelho concludes that the pilot of her flight made decisions on the fly, turning East. She attributes survival to the choices made by the team; and that the crew held the passengers lives in their hands.
I’m sure she felt relief to be back on the ground after her flight; and that she and her fellow passengers were grateful to be alive. But they probably didn’t realize just how much a miracle their survival was until the disaster of the French Airbus, that tragic flight which followed the same path but did not reach it’s intended destination.
The pilot and crew of an aircraft truly do hold the lives of their passengers in their hands. It is a grim and unnerving responsibility but one not limited to the obvious pilot. The responsibility extends beyond the cockpit to everyone whose craft involves the fabrication, operation and maintenance of that plane: the manufacturers, the builders, the authors of the manuals, the maintenance crew.
Purveyors of technology may be the keepers of progress… but we must cast a diligent eye on that progress that our technological reach does not exceed our grasp. We should remember that progress is an audacious thing. We can do our best to build technologically safe bubbles in which to lead our lives; but our control is an illusion. We are only ants on the face of the earth, shaking our fists at the sky.
There is something about the brush with death that reawakens us to how frail are our lives. It is the media, agencies like the FAA and the NTSB–and even the public eye– who are stewards of that frailty. We cannot reach back to May 31st and pluck the passengers from their tragedy. The best we can do is take lessons from the past. So we don’t have to be reminded again.
Where There’s Smoke, There’s Fire. Where There’s Fire, Will There Be Passengers?
George’s Point of View
The biggest consequence in this Trent 900 engine brouhaha may be the Rolls Royce reputation.
While the company’s engineering skills have not suddenly degraded overnight, confidence in Rolls Royce certainly has. If, as the Australian Transport Safety Bureau says, the internal fire in the notorious (Qantas owned) Trent 900 engine is the result of an internal engine oil leak at 1,000°C at high pressure, the endangerment of 440 passengers and 26 crew may have been preventible, given that there seems to have been fore-knowlege (by Rolls Royce) of a 1st generation manufacturing defect in a pipe coupling. As the 3rd generation versions of the engine no longer sport the same problem, the issue was recognized prior to the explosion, and dealt with.
The failure to communicate a potential problem to Qantas before the engine fire, and for that matter, to owners of all affected 1st and 2nd generation products (Singapore Airlines and Lufthansa), goes beyond a communications failure and inches toward negligence. And the practical concern now is that irregardless of whether the specific factor was a manufacturing defect or fatigue, how swift and responsible will Rolls Royce be in corrective action, aggressive inspection schedules and reconfiguring a maintenance paradigm that gets A380s back on track?
Time will tell. Also, only time will tell if this engine explosion will be contained within the auspices of Rolls Royce; Qantas, Singapore Airlines and Lufthansa. In fact, Rolls Royce is not alone in its sub-culture of secrecy and non-reportage and disclosure. Will the teetering public confidence in aviation safety will be irrevocably compromised in the days to come?
