Hudson Crash May Provide AF477 Answers

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  • 6 Years of Unsupervised Supervision=65000 Flights of Chaos

    They say about real estate that the three most important things are location, location, location. And that makes sense, because the key factor about real estate is its lack of portability. Whether you’re in Calabasas or Timbuktu, where you are ultimately is where you are. The fact that it is where it is is what makes it what it is. Intrinsic value, and all that.

    One could argue what the most important thing about travel is. You could make a strong argument for getting there, being there, or smelling the roses along the way. If we narrow the question to the single most important thing about air travel, the most important thing is probably getting there in one piece–mostly because it seems that getting there safely and completely without incident is an ever more dubious proposition, a perception which is being emphasized now more than ever due to NASA’s Aviation Safety Reporting System. When record keeping changes, it is difficult to say if some underlying factor has changed, or if the reporting is the only change. At any given time, it looks like the odds of getting there in one piece–on a plane that is 100% airworthy–are starting to look slim. And that is important whether the a plane is landing at LAX, (third busiest US Airport)

    NASA’s Aviation Safety Reporting System allows crew members to phone in anonymous reports, a whistle-blower’s hotline as it were. So there’s a record of blunders, errors, faults, and slip-ups, like improper repairs, substandard repairs, unqualified mechanics and maintenance deficits that might otherwise have slipped by or gotten swept under the rug.

    Honestly, what I see on these reports makes me seriously anxious. I’ll be facing more white-knuckled flights, just knowing that in the past six years, 65,000 flights have taken off in less than airworthy condition in conditions of deferred maintenance, or sporting less than stellar repairs farmed out to contract shops. 65,000 flights is a lot of flights, even if it is spread out over 6 years and 63 million flights. And do I believe that ALL of the other planes were in perfect running order? No.

    Some of the mechanical problems that down planes can be linked back to tiny repairs, or perhaps I should say involving small but very important parts. If a plane can go down because a single screw is loose, or the threads are worn, then acute attention to maintenance is exponentially more important. I wouldn’t set foot in a golf cart in the condition some of these planes are in. But as a commercial passenger, I would never know if repairs on my flight were deferred. I would not know if a plane were outsourced to a sub-standard repair facility by mechanics without repair manuals, proper tools or correct parts. Outsourcing repairs to other countries not only removes shops from proper supervision, it also opens up the possibility of security risk. But I digress from what is my primary concern right now.

    A sense of proportion and common sense should be applied here. Lights over a passenger seat are not as crucial as a screw assembly on the tail that provides pitch control.

    I’m just saying:

    We need more qualified supervised aviation repair facilities on U.S. soil.
    We need airlines to stop deferring repairs.
    We need airlines to maintain high standards.
    We need the FAA and the NTSB to do their jobs.

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  • Expert Opinion: Fatigue and Bad Choices

    For some things, you don’t need experts.

    Anyone who has ever attempted driving cross-country without taking an overnight knows the answer to the question of whether or not fatigue affects your judgment while driving. Of course fatigue has an affect on making serious assessments. It happens while driving on the nation’s highways, so why should it be any different on the nation’s skyways?

    But of course the experts have to chime in. At least this time they agree with the rest of the real world that fatigue is hazardous to judgement. Furthermore, there is airline culpability here, since those low-wage pilots were flying cross-country just to get TO work, there’s no way they could start their shift fresh. Pilot Marvin Renslow had flown from his Florida residence to Newark and either had no hotel room, stayed up, or napped in the Newark crew lounge (which at Colgan Air is a fireable offense.) His abysmal training/test record stands as its own worst advocate. Co-pilot Rebecca Shaw who lived in Seattle had just pulled an all-nightter so she could get a free ride to work–and she was sick.

    The pilot and co-pilot of the Colgan flight were facing multiple issues. The speed of the plane had dropped. Ice had gathered on the wings. The shaker stick had engaged. Neither pilot nor co-pilot appeared to be familiar with how to handle icing; neither were adequately grounded on emergency procedure; neither knew whether this was a wing or tail stall (which affected whether or not the nose should be down); and neither knew what to do with the shaker stick.

    That the pilots were discussing subjects not related to flying is a “red herring.”

    Admittedly, they could have been paying more attention to what was going on, but think of how many of us who have driven long distances use conversation to help us stay alert in similar circumstances. Even if they’d been speaking exclusively of the emergency, doing so would not have been the magic bullet that filled in the gaps left by inadequate training. They still would not have known what to do.

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  • Happy Fourth


    It is the Fourth of July.

    Without naming names, I save a corner of my happiness for those countries in turmoil, and peoples of all nations and beliefs–I pray whatever their unhappiness is that it will pass, and they too will know some happiness in their own lifetime, in their own back yards.

    Today, most of the USA will be grilling with friends and family.

    Today we will share the heat, the plenty, the sunshine, the smoke, the food and the fireworks.

    Today from sea to shining sea, we will celebrate our independence—another day, another precious year of this miracle of democracy in this land of unparalleled beauty and diversity. We may argue amongst ourselves, but I hope we can always remember, together, warts and all, we are beautiful. Our lives are the embodiment of a beautiful idea.

    Today I will not think about the pundits who bring us bad news, and focus instead on the story of our country, the miracle that continues. As our lives inscribe another fourth of July into our own history books, let there be another unique page in our story.

    This year, maybe we can invite a few more people to sit at our tables, so more of us can look forward to a well fed today, and a better, stronger, brighter future for our children.

    Today we are still the United States of America, and this is our Independence day.

    I have to reflect on my love of this holiday, but not too long because my family is waiting.

    It’s not the flag waving, it’s what the flag represents.

    I love this holiday because it celebrates our lives. It is a simple thing, really. America is families. Families in our parks, or in our own backyards. A hot dog, a hamburger, a chicken on every grill.

    I love this holiday because this is where our kids play, where they grow strong and free, and spit watermelon seeds. I love this country because my children are free to argue their own opinions, not just about recycling and vegetarianism, but subjects like abortion and political theory. My children are free to be who they are. They are free to dream of who they can be. They are free to reach out and become the dream. Here sons and daughters can both play spontaneous games of touch football, or soccer or tennis or baseball, or compete in potato-sack races or lie on towels in the grass and stare up to count the leaves that twinkle in the sunlight, or the stars peeking out at dusk.

    Tonight I will love this country even more when the babies that cried over fireworks last year will this year gaze at them in wonder.

    Happy Birthday America from sea to shining sea. Have a happy fourth of July.

    * all credit to whoever made this amazing photo found on the internet. You are an artist and an inspiration, whoever you are.

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  • | | |

    The Delaminating 787: Causing Problems and Recalls


    The Boeing 787’s composite skin is under the eye now, with the carbon fiber structure deconstructing after improperly joined structural stiffeners fail. Longerons are installed on a wound carbon fibre barrel, frames and longerons are secured to the skin to strengthen the structure, and reinforced by shims. Without shims making a tight fit, damage incurs to the carbon fiber.

    The problem has been located on an All Nippon Airways (56), and two Qatar Airways airframes (57 and 58), all of which originate in Everett Washington.

    More 787s are expected to turn up with the same problem.

    The structural stiffeners are failing in the location of the Alenia Aeronotica-built horizontal stabiliser.

    Boeing confirms that the problem is a “straightforward repair that should cause no short-term safety concern.”

    Inspections are already underway, and strategic plans for repairs are on the drawing board. A 2010 problem involved the teardown and reinstallation of some Alenia Aeronautica-built horizontal stabilisers which had been assembled without adequate shims.

    In George’s Point of View

    updated


    According to a Reuters article, Boeing is saying publicly that this will not affect production.

    It SHOULD affect production.

    Boeing needs to slow down and get it right. Thousands of souls will fly in these “things.” Boeing’s got to have it right. Instead of ramping up, slow down production. What good is an ambitious target rate if the planes come out needing SAFOs (Safety Alerts for Operators)?

    Too fast reminds me of Airbus.

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  • |

    Aviation Oriented Jobs Projections

    Food for Sequestration thoughts:

    • Closing small airports.
    • Cut FAA Funding.
    • Cut 168 contractor-staffed air traffic control towers nationwide on April 1
    • Cut 21 (more) towers by Sept. 30.
    • Cut passenger and cargo capacity.
    • Cut Up to 132,000 aviation jobs.
    • Cut $80 billion a year from the nation’s gross domestic product
    • Cut two billion pounds of freight capacity

    Aviation Jobs are still in demand, but expect inevitable cuts especially with new hires.

    American Airlines advertising vacancies for 1,500 flight attendants and got 22,000 applications. US Airways got about 20,000 applications for 420 vacancies. Delta announced an opening for some four hundred flight attendants. Over 50,000 people applied for the job. According to AVjobs, a flight attendant makes between $14.50 and $20.49 per hour. An A & P Mechanic makes between $16.47 and $30 per hour. A mechanical engineer makes between $45,000 and $90,000 per year. A member of the flight crew makes between $24,000.00 and $100,000 per year. *


    United Airlines Extends SF International Maintenance Op Center Lease
    United Airlines is now committed for ten years to the San Francisco Airport area. UA and the San Francisco Airport Commission signed a ten year extension on the airline’s existing Maintenance Operations Center at San Francisco International Airport. The 130-acre San Francisco Maintenance Operations Center employs about 3,500 maintenance workers. According to United’s senior VP of tech, “The lease extension on our San Francisco Maintenance Operations Center benefits our people, our customers and the Bay Area. United’s investment underscores our commitment to San Francisco, the Maintenance Operations Center and its role in supporting the industry’s premier trans-Pacific hub.”

    In George’s Point of View

    I agree with Harrison Ford.

    Harrison Ford said “Accidents are going to happen.”

    Accidents have been happening all along. Expect more of them.

    *Data from AV Jobs

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  • Blame Game Aviation-style

    George’s Point of View

    The latest in the Comorian aviation rumor mill is that sweet and gentle albeit elderly and perfectly innocent Yemenia Airbus 310 was shot down with a dastardly missile by the French Navy vessels performing maneuvers in the area of the accident a day before the plane crash. Nevermind that the plane was positively geriatric in plane years. Nevermind that it was already disallowed to fly in Europe. Nevermind that it was flying in weather so bad that rough winds had already fouled up the plane’s first pass at the runway.

    One tends to doubt that the French Navy was performing maneuvers in the area in the kind of weather that doomed the landing of the Yemenia airbus. Maybe the “missile” was suspended in the air for a whole day while waiting for the Airbus. (Does the French Navy normally fire at Mitsamouli, Djomani, Ouemani or Ouela?)

    Maybe if we focus our eyes on the French navy, no one will notice the state of Comorian aviation, airports, aviation safety measures and rescue procedures.

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