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Category: <span>Editorial</span>

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The Official’s Unofficial Official Opinion…

About last tuesday’s Fatal Rusline/RusAir Tupolov crash in Russia, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Sergei Ivanov, mentions that familiar phrase “obvious pilot error” while simultaneously promising he is not pre-emping the findings of the actual investigation. Officials have made spontaneous statements in the past, and lived to regret it, so that point remains to be seen.

The question of pilot error is questionable. The plane was flying in at too low an angle, (I may have read somewhere that the angle was what was directed by ATC but my source could be mistaken.)

Flying too low, the landing gear caught on electrical wires which caused an area blackout that included the local town and the airport runway lights. Is being unable to land on a runway without lights something that could be called pilot error? I suppose that remains to be seen, also.

So the cause is up for grabs: bad weather, technical malfunction or human error. What’s left? We do not know yet. We rely on the investigation to reveal the facts.

Irrespective of what caused this horrible tragedy, the decedents were fault-free. Rusline and RusAir are responsible for compensating the families who had entrusted the safekeeping of their loved ones into their care.

There is no amount of money that will bring back the loved ones, but compensation is due.

For 44 individuals, it was fatal; for 8, it was nearly fatal. I hate to sound too judgmental here, but a government official should probably not make sweeping generalizations about the causes of a tragic event without making it clear what is personal opinion and what is an official statement. Every supposition before the official report is released is guess work. All the conjecturing that will take place between now and when an investigation report is released is just that–conjecture. Some of it will be based on emotional responses; some of it will be based on varying perception of what may or may not be facts. For now, we can offer condolences to the families.

All we know for certain is that the crash that should not have happen, did, and people’s lives were cut short because of it.

The Callous Abandonment of Air France Flight 447

It’s difficult for me to comprehend why we cancelled earlier searches. I’m certain we do not have any new technology now that we didn’t already have 2 years ago. The subs used have been gradually fine-tuned, but not significantly in the past two years.

It is common knowledge now that the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute team, running a couple of AUVs (Autonomous Underwater Vehicle) Remus 6000’s were barely a week into the fourth search when they discovered the location of pieces of the wreckage of the fallen Airbus, flight 447 in an area thought of as an underwater “Himalayas”. Mike Purcell, Senior Engineer of the Woods Hole team, has attributed the discovery to the ability of the Remus being able to submerge to 6000 meters (which means being able to follow the underwater mountain range cliffs, ravines, and slopes); and to the decision to start close to the last known position of the plane.

I do wonder why this was the fourth search; there should have been only one— a single search that continued until the wreckage was found.

Maybe there is no correct time to be critical, and if I am critical, it is not of the search team who did a splendid, if not all but impossible job, in finding the wreckage. It is entirely the human effort that made the difference, because although the AUVs are autonomous, they are not truly intelligent. They had to be daily programmed, and with three units running, this means three times the (sonar) data had to be daily downloaded, processed and analyzed. The team learned how to deal with managing the challenging demersal topography, and reading the visual output which were sonar abstractions that look like etch-a-sketch scribbles. The expert on board analysts had 15 years of experience in interpreting this data.

For the search team, I have only praise.

My point of criticism is for the decision makers, and it is founded on behalf of concern for the families.

We are hearing how well preserved the remains were, due to the temperature and water pressure. We are hearing about how only some of the remains were retrieved.

Why only some?

All the bereaved families should have the right to retrieve their loved ones. All of the families should have the right to place their loved ones in a known and tangible resting place.

It is a chilling callousness on behalf of the planners to advise their team to knowingly leave behind even so much as a single hair, if that hair was known to be that of one of the victims. The decision betrays a chilling callousness; an act of deliberate abandonment. It reminds me of those all fallen into a “deep place…where the sun is silent”, in Dante’s hell. “Abandon all hope, all ye who enter here.”

And now, we’re back to where we started, only worse. Many bodies were not recovered. Are they lost forever?

I can all but guarantee you that the future holds some grisly Titanic/Disney-esque treasure-seeking macarbre (or sugared) revisitation of the tragic ground, private touring expeditions seeking out the latitude and longitude, with camera, wallet, and catching net in hand. Movie rights and treasure hunters-a marriage made in hell, or Hollywood.

This is no Dante’s tale. For the bereaved families there will be no poetic justice. They will live knowing forever that their loved ones were found…came this close to being returned…and left behind, if not in the nine circles of hell, then across the oceans in that “deep place…where the sun is silent” and all hope abandoned.


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Raising the Bar on Pilot Training

Whether one looks at what happened in US cockpits on the Colgan Air flight (49 aboard killed, 1 on the ground, 4 injuries on the ground), or at Air France Flight 447 (228 killed), or if one looks at foreign crashes such as in Mangalore (166 aboard, 8 survivors), it appears that pilots need better tools to indicate when they are in trouble; and better training on how to respond in emergency situations such as when components fail, or flight is becoming unstable for whatever reason. It does little good to be warned that something is wrong if the warning comes at a point when it is too late to do anything about it.

One wonders if the Thales pitot tubes are equipped to warn when there is a heating failure; or if there is a backup heating system for the tubes; if that backup system were equipped to give a warning. One wonders if there might not be an additional set of pitot tubes installed, one that might be stored internally, but that the pilot might be able to engage automatically if the tubes fail; or barring that, one wonders if there should not be some other mechanical (as opposed to digital or mathematic) “speedometer device” alternative on board for emergency situations… in case pitot tubes again happen to fail in the dark of night over an unlit ocean hurtling for the duration of a four minute stall to an inevitable watery grave.

I do not advocate reverting everything to fly-by-wire. The best way I can express this is with a simile: Forcing pilots to use fly by wire is like forcing a healthy person to always ride in an electric wheelchair because there is a possibility they might trip.

If you do this, the person stuck in the wheelchair becomes less able to walk. Their leg muscles will atrophy and their walking skills will deteriorate. They become a passive passenger rather than an active participant. Thus ultimately, relying on a mechanical device to perform what the human being should be doing actually cripples their abilities rather than enhances them. Fly by wire should only be a tool an otherwise competent pilot can use on occasion, not part of the status quo.

It seems ironic that the automatic pilot quit at the point that it was most needed. But face it–the automatic system was as confused and disoriented as the pilots were at the incoming faulty data.

We will never know, whether, if the AF447 data crash occurred during daylight hours, if the pilots would have known better how to deal with the situation. Or if the notification of approaching flight crisis was a death knoll rather than a warning, i.e. a warning that came too late for any corrective measures to be applied. But we can be fairly sure that if there were better training and better warning, the catastrophe would not have occurred.

Right Air France Flight 447 Analysis—Wrong Angle

Everyone with an agenda will be defending their side regardless of any relationship to truth.

In “George Jonas: How a pilot turned Air France Flight 447 into a giant brick” I find the personification of the autopilot “George” very interesting-and especially the comment Jonas attributes to the autopilot- “This thing isn’t airworthy, mates. You fly it. I quit.”

I keep seeing discussions trying to blame the pilot for keeping the nose up attitude.

The author of the National Post article gives the pilots all possible credit (“Air France has superb pilots.”) Maybe there was something else going on if the pilot flew nose up. If it were daylight, maybe they’d have had some concept that they were flying at too low a speed. I learned from the Colgan Air accident about the nose down response to gain speed.

The Air France Flight 447 transcriptions indicate that the angle of attack continued to increase, and the trimmable horizontal stabiliser increased; angle of attack continued to increase, and the trimmable horizontal stabiliser increased from a 3° nose-up position to 13° nose-up – where it stayed for the rest of the flight.

According to an expert pilot’s analysis, no pilot would ever fly those angles of attack (pitch) if they were able to prevent them.

The reported angle of attacks are incompatible with commercial flights unless required in an extreme situation such as to avoid an imminent ground contact or collision (GPWS or TCAS). Even that would be just for a brief moment.

If the information is true and I bet my life on that, those pilots were prevented from taking the proper actions to reduce the airplane’s angle of attack (pitch). And that means only one thing: The airplane’s automatism either malfunctioned or was conceived not to allow the pilot’s intervention (Airbus philosophy).

Either possibility will put the blame onto the manufacturer.

*GPWS means GROUND PROXIMITY WARNING SYSTEMS also known as EGPWS (E for “ENHANCED”)
**TCAS means TRAFFIC COLLISION AND AVOIDANCE SYSTEM


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21st Century Air Traffic Control: GAATS+ Technology

New technologies in aviation come about to solve problems and make air travel safer. From this new technology, controllers will have increased situational awareness.

Air traffic control relies on positive and procedural navigation: positive uses radar; procedural uses the radio-procedure of pilots reporting their position every few minutes.

Gander Automated Air Traffic System Plus (GAATS+) is Canada’s new trans-oceanic flight control system developed especially to help deal with sixty percent (the percentage of jets equipped with GPS position-reporting and text-based communications avionics) of the thousand jets crossing the North Atlantic daily (just as Air France 447 did.) It reduces radio procedure by extending positive control via north coast radar feeds.

The new technology is an advance in integration which automates ATC processes (taking advantage of the newest GPS technology, ADS-B and ADS-C) and is expected to save client airlines a million in fuel yearly. It is said that GAATS+ “provides significant enhancements to the original GAATS system, including electronic flight strips and increased automation of data exchange with other ATC facilities. GAATS+ also integrates automated flight plan processing, track generation, advanced conflict prediction and data-link communication for position reports.”

Of course I can not help but have opinions on operational technology, even without a single tangible thing that qualifies me to have an opinion.

The phrase that caught my eye is the statement that “GAATS allows reduced separation by lessening reliance solely on procedural control.”

I am not now nor will I ever be working in a control room. I will have to take the word of Air Traffic Controllers on how this system will work at making flying safer.

My opinion is only based on a layman’s experience and too much attention paid to aviation detail. I only see a few sticking points and they are broad ones:

  • The technology conundrum: Technology is good because it brings greater efficiency; but sometimes I wonder if a reliance on technology will allow skills to atrophy. Will a system like this ultimately result in less able controllers, the same way cockpit technology has resulted in less able pilots?
  • Separation conundrumI hear the phrase greater separation, and I think, “okay, these planes won’t impact each other; they’re safe from direct contact and wake turbulence.” So when I just see the GAATS literature talking about enabling “reduced separation,” what perceive a greater possibility for direct contact and/or wake turbulence. I know the idea of a 5 minute longitudinal separation as opposed to ten is intended to mean greater capacity for traffic. But increased technological accuracy and precision in tracking jets is a good thing only as long as we don’t use the precision in a way that is ultimately chancy.
  • New software conundrum Anyone who has ever had a system knows that the bugs in the system don’t show up right away. They are discovered at various points whenever parameters are stretched or unexpected /unanticipated/ extraordinary events occur. Even when software is not beta any longer, ( las GAATS+ is the latest incarnation of existing GAATS), it is still a developing work in progress, as new problems are revealed and are bridged. So we can only hope that any bugs that exist will not be fatal ones.

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Anniversary of Air France 447-Personal Consequences of Death on the Flying Brick

Elie Wiesal said “Because I remember, I despair. Because I remember, I have the duty to reject despair.”

It is not time to despair. It is time to remember. We are remembering Air France 447, and the families whose lives have forever changed. Families left behind have to deal with carrying on.

Experts say that there are five steps (called the Kubler-Ross model) of grief: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance.

After a year, or two, or three one might be able to say that families with tragedies to process have come to acceptance; but the model is not a hard truth. Those suffering grief may hopscotch between stages, or get stuck at any of them. And just as smells tend to refresh memory, so too can dates. And June 1 for Air France 447 families is one of those dates.

Maybe it is a blessing that everything changes. Maybe it is a blessing that the first moment of finding you have lost a loved one in a plane crash is not frozen in amber, to be felt always at the original intensity. It is inevitable that the depth of grief will fluctuate.

In the beginning, the deaths of those aboard the plane were shrouded in mystery. A black hole of mystery, in fact, one that swallowed up the craziest theories, from abductions, to terrorism, to aliens. The investigation marched on, to the tune of millions of dollars, and hundreds of investigators and professionals marched to that tune, working to uncover the puzzle pieces and put them together to shed light on what really happened. At least now, with the black boxes recovered, there are facts to deal with rather than crazy speculation.

But even facts will not change the reality. Those gone are still gone. At whatever stage you are experiencing it, the grief you feel is real. I have no advice for you. Anyway, advice comes across as condescending. But we all have suffered pain and grief and loss, and I can only hope for the families that you remember.

Remember the good things.

Remember mornings across your breakfast tables, the rush to begin the day, the slow times after the day is done.

Remember the moments spent together. Remember the depths as well as the peaks. Remember the places you went together, and when you revisit the places, you will revisit your loved ones.

The heart is not buried along with the victim. The heart goes on.


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Notes on Air France Flight 447: Thoughts on the CVR Facts

So there you have it: the short version of the investigation’s reading of the Cockpit Voice recorder.
If you missed it, we have posted it here in this blog in it’s entirety:

https://airflightdisaster.com/?p=17147

If you don’t like the visual rendition, you can click at the bottom for the .pdf.

The problems seem to begin at 2 h 08 min 07; then at 2 h 10 min 05 autopilot & auto thrust disengages. The pilots note that the speeds do not agree,( which means the speeds are incorrect, and it is an indication that pitot tubes are malfunctioning. Around this time, ACARS sent a PITOT error message, which was not mentioned in the CVR summary.) The PIC (captain) re-enters at 2 h 11 min 40 and it is all downhill from there.

As far as we can tell, everything in the cockpit voice recorder still indicates that the main cause for this crash is Thales defective pitot tubes which froze over and sent incorrect data back. How could anyone make correct decisions without knowing the speed at which the plane was traveling? How would the pilots have discerned when the incoming data was faulty and which of it—if any—was correct?

Based on the pilots’ response to the stall, we can also reiterate points made at the February 24 hearing, where Justice Zimmerman pointed out a lack of training for pilots on how to respond to a catastrophic failure. Shouldn’t pilots (and not just the PIC) be trained in this procedure to the point that the correct corrective response is second nature? The time to try to figure out how to respond is not during the catastrophe, with 228 lives hanging in the balance.

There does not appear to be an emergency procedure from the manufacturer. (This was also noted in the February hearing by Justice Zimmerman.)

It appears that the plane stalled, and that could not be corrected in time to prevent the catastrophe.

So now, all eyes will turn to the DVR, which will hopefully help decode what happened mechanically in the stall.

And I do have questions about the notation, which seems to imply that even if autopilot is not online, some (background?) processes continue to be determined by digital input, which may be faulty.
When the measured speeds are below 60 kt, the measured angle of attack values are considered invalid and are not taken into account by the systems. When they are below 30 kt, the speed values themselves are considered invalid. (Or I am misreading the data and the fact of unrecoverability is due to other system factors. It does appear that the Flight Control System is unwieldy or badly conceived.)

It seems to me as a layman, that this is a fly-by-wire conundrum. If the plane is in crisis, but it is logically disregarding the correct input when it is beyond a “safe or logical” range, then how can it be corrected, if there are no manual controls? (Not to mention no emergency procedures to fall back on.)


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The Airbus “No Major Malfunction” Malfunction

Rumors are multiplying. Now there is an unconfirmed rumor that the captain was absent from the cockpit at the time of the event.

In NOT a Flight of Imagination , we did not go into depth about the false-rumor buzz initially created by the French publication “Le Figaro” which is owned by Dassault Group. (i.e. vested interest.) It has already been released that an Airbus rep who is in on the AF 447 black box decoding had obtained permission to send out a telex indicating:

…no immediate action is required as a result of preliminary data from the Air France Airbus A330 accident.

Of course this is what Airbus is going to say. For all we know, they had that statement ready before they even looked at the tapes. Airbus is laying the groundwork. Don’t forget that this is a criminal case in the French court. One does not need a crystal ball to see that this is going to be very expensive for Thales and Airbus and Air France. And of course, the size of compensation payouts for the victim’s families be determined by the extent of blame of the involved parties.

From this quote, a thousand rumors sprang, based on every possible interpretation of that one statement. Although the initial Airbus statement was approved by the BEA, the interpretations were disapproved of by the BEA who followed up saying that Sensationalist publication of non-validated information, whilst the analysis of the data from the flight recorders has only just started, is a violation of the respect due to the passengers and the crew members that died and disturbs the families of the victims, who have already suffered as a result of many hyped-up stories.

The telex does not rule out pitot tube icing, currently a suspected factor in the crash. But Airbus is positioning itself already to blame dead pilots who cannot defend themselves. They want to take the court of public opinion as far as possible away from potential design flaws, manufacturing shortcuts, etc. However, this is not a wise move if they really consider it. The entire bastion of Airbus Fly By Wire theory is that they make “pilot proof” planes.

So, how in the same breath, can they say their planes are pilot-proof and that they crashed due to pilot error? According to their own hype, If the plane itself is pilot-proof, then it can not crash due to pilot error. It HAD to crash due to “other than pilot” error.

As I understand it, no matter what happens on this fly-by-wire model, if there is a problem, the pilots are shut out of being able to fix it anyway.


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Remember Flight 812

May 22, 2010

It has been a year since flight 812–the Air India Express Dubai-Mangalore flight that took on 166 passengers, and only delivered 8 of them alive. The rest died when the plane landed too far down the runway, and continued over the edge of a gorge. That leaves us 8 live victims who will forever remember the trauma; and 158 deceased victims who will not, but whose passing will forever leave a black hole of absence.

Lawsuits may talk of justice, and toss around terms like economic losses; Lawyers may talk about compensation; airlines and insurers may dangle various sums of money over the families heads. But nothing anyone will do will make these families right again.

The families have to suffer the loss of their loved ones from now through eternity. And to balance that, courts offer compensation. Instead of local laws protecting their citizens, in compensation cases, the required amount to pay for a decedent in some cases could be less than any treaty. A number is slapped on each victim, as if the numeric value is that person. And sometimes, because of the way values are computed, the numbers are insulting. They’re based on earning power–In the Mangalore crash, it is a mere 35 lakhs for a non-working woman. (Roughly 75,100, U.S.). An insulting lump sum to give for a life, when currently, every person who dies in an air crash on any international flight is (technically) entitled to a final compensation of $ 1,76,000 SDRs* according to the international guidelines, the Montreal Convention.

I want justice for the families, if there is such a thing. I want fair compensation, if there is such a thing. I want that compensation to provide an umbrella of coverage to be enough so they can at least be comfortable while their psyches have a chance to adjust. Even knowing that money does not staunch the wound, nor will it bring healing, (only time does that), I am still aware that it is a tangible something that we can do for the families who will have to go on, not only minus breadwinners, but minus joy.

These families have lost the light in their lives. There is no hundred watt lightbulb they can plug in that will chase the shadows; no incandescent or florescent fixture that can be switched on to bring normal back. In spite of whatever check that will be written, mothers, fathers, brothers, sisters, children, spouses–all will still have disappeared into that black hole of absence. The families will have to learn to scrabble through, and hang on until they find a new normal. But if I have a chance to make their lives better, to help them find a settlement that will at least allow them to lead physically comfortable lives, I will. That is what I do.

I am a lucky man. I come home to an intact family, a wife and grown children; and we all have our lives to look back on and to look forward to, our holidays, like this recent Easter. Our lives to live, with no darkness, and with our joy intact. I tell myself that I appreciate what I have, that I appreciate everything that makes my life what it is, but it never feels as true as when I look at the calendar and see this day.

*Standard Drawing Rates-The SDR (Special Drawing Right) is an artificial “basket” currency used by the IMF (International Monetary Fund) for internal accounting purposes. The SDR is also used by some countries as a peg for their own currency, and is used as an international reserve asset.To calculate the value of the SDR in national currency (say, ABC), multiply the four exchange rates of the home country vis-à-vis the basket-currency countries (i.e., ABC/USD, ABC/EUR, ABC/JPY, and ABC/GBP) with the basket values indicated in the above table. Add these four numbers together to obtain the ABC/SDR exchange rate.


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Air Blue Flight 202 -Don’t forget the Families


Some people woke today and remembered 152 passengers who crashed into a hillside in Pakistan. The plane was flown by Airblue and it was the last ride those 152 people would ever remember. For the last ten months, every morning the families wake and remember someone on that plane who is no longer here. Even though as of July 28, it will have been a year since the crash, to their families, time doesn’t matter so much. Justice does.

On July 28, Airbus sent out a press release regrettably confirming their year 2000 model Airbus A321 operated by Airblue operating a scheduled service, Flight ED 202, from Karachi to Islamabad crashed, killing all aboard. Airbus promised to provide full technical assistance to Pakistani authorities. Thanks for the concern and sympathy, but ask the families, where is their assistance?

We have not heard anything about Pilot Pervez Iqbal Chaudhry who was 61 years old, and suffering from diabetes and hypertension. Was he suffering fatigue if he had observed prayers of the holy day preceding the crash? We don’t know. His flight schedule has not been released.

The black box, was found July 31 of last year, and sent to the Bureau d’Enquêtes et d’Analyses pour la Sécurité de l’Aviation Civile, but the BEA (whose involvement is one of “observer” under 1944 Chicago Annex 13) has no page up for the crash. Ask the families, where is their assistance?

The NTSB (also observer) only has this statement: The investigation is being conducted by the Pakistan Safety & Investigation Board, Civil Aviation Authority. The NTSB appointed an Accredited Representative to assist the investigation under the provisions of ICAO Annex 13 as the Country of Manufacture and Design of the engines. Ask the families, where is their assistance?

The ball is in Pakistani court.

The Pakistani government announced compensation of Rs 500,000 ($5,847) to each family. (Pakistan is signatory to Hague Protocol and Montreal Convention of 1999, under which compensation could be as much as Rs12 million per victim.) The pending Carriage by Air Act 2010 offers minimum compensation of Rs500,000 for death and injury of domestic flight passengers. Airblue has replaced the plane and business is booming.

But not the families of the 152 victims. We still don’t know why it happened. We haven’t heard about families getting compensation. If this were an international flight, there would be an active treaty (Montreal Convention) outlining the guidelines. But in this domestic flight, the families still hanging in the wind, waiting for a report, and waiting for compensation. We know that to get adequate compensation, the families will have to fight it out in court. If you ask the families where their assistance is, they will tell you that there has been none. Should they have to petition the court for the most fundamental victim’s right—just to find out why the airline they trusted with their loved ones lives, the plane they trusted with their loved ones—crashed?

Link to our initial study, Airblue 202-­?Pre-­?Theory and Testing Hypothesis


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Registros de voz e dados, não um Voo da Imaginação.

Ler em Inglês
Na insistente busca pela verdade dos fatos por trás do voo 447 da Air France, não faz diferença o porquê de o “Le Figaro” ter publicado rumores e factóides como se verdades o fossem, logo após o BEA ter anunciado em paris que todos os dados (gravador e voz e gravador de dados) puderam ser recuperados.

Não importa se o “Le Figaro” está mais interessado em aumentar a tiragem de jornais, que na veracidade, legitimidade e validade das notícias publicadas;

Pode ser que alguém no “Le Figaro”, com grandes investimentos na Airbus, tenha a expectativa de falsamente aumentar as cotações da companhia. Nós não temos a menor ideia de quais sejam seus motivos.

O que importam são os fatos.
O que importa é que, com a recuperação dos dados das caixas-pretas, as informações parecem estar intactas (segundo o BEA).
O que importa é que as equipes de recuperação de dados foram capazes de abrir, recuperar, limpar e secar os cartões de memória, recuperando os dados reais.

Não há motivo para os dados não coincidirem com o que já foi apurado pelo sistema ACARS, o qual indica uma falha dos tubos de pitot que, dando início a uma sequência catastrófica de eventos mecânicos, inevitavelmente culminaram em uma falha total do sistema.

Acreditamos que a aeronave entrou em estol e caiu 35.000 pés em direção ao oceano. Se o BEA tivesse levado isso em conta, eles teriam encontrado a aeronave em semanas.

O avião enviou mensagens automatizadas, de onde se pode deduzir a sequência dos acontecimentos.

É um FATO conhecido que os sistemas mecânicos a bordo do voo 447 da Air France eram os sistemas padrão dos Airbus A330: uma tecnologia “fly-by-wire” que é conhecida por retirar a responsabilidade e as ações das mãos dos pilotos em determinadas situações. Um sistema fly-by-wire altera os comandos dados pelo piloto conforme parâmetros internos de controle.

Os pilotos que operam esse tipo de sistema fly-by-wire ficam impossibilitados de desligá-lo manualmente, no caso de tubos de pitot congelados começarem a transmitir dados incorretos. A teoria atual é que, durante o voo 447 da Air France, os tubos defeituosos fabricados pela Thales passaram a transmitir dados incorretos para os sistemas de bordo. Um desastre praticamente inevitável.

(Em Setembro de 2009, a FAA emitiu uma orientação informando que “a utilização do modelo da Thales levou a relatos de discrepâncias nas indicações de velocidade quando em operação a altitudes elevadas e sob condições climáticas difíceis […], (as quais) […] poderiam resultar em limitações no controle da aeronave”.)

Antes do recolhimento do conteúdo das caixas-pretas, os dados coletados apontavam para a seguinte série de eventos:
Os tubos pitot da Thales são pequenos dispositivos afixados no exterior da aeronave que medem a velocidade do ar, mas que comprovadamente possuem tendência a congelar, o que embaralha os dados coletados. Em termos resumidos, o sistema da Airbus exige que a entrada de dados esteja correta para que o avião voe adequadamente. Quando os tubos congelados começaram a transmitir dados corrompidos, o sistema se tornou incapaz de controlar o voo. No modelo 330, em caso de falha, os pilotos não possuem meios para desligar manualmente os sistemas.

Ninguém espera que as caixas pretas indiquem qualquer outra coisa. O que talvez se espere é um esclarecimento sobre os dados e uma possibilidade de se estudar os eventos, de modo a evitar que os mesmos se repitam.

O BEA se opôs veementemente à especulação na mídia. Aliás, emitiu um comunicado especificamente apontando o “Le Figaro” como sendo o jornal sensacionalista que publicou informações inválidas. Eis o que foi dito pelo BEA:

Segundo um artigo publicado no “Le Figaro”, na tarde do dia 16 de Maio de 2011, as “primeiras informações extraídas das caixas-pretas” estariam eximindo a Airbus no acidente com a aeronave A330, voo AF447, que vitimou 216 passageiros e 12 tripulantes em 1º de Junho de 2009.

Publicações sensacionalistas de informações não confirmadas, enquanto que a analise dos dados recuperados mal começou, é uma desconsideração para com o respeito devido aos passageiros e tripulantes que pereceram, trazendo ainda mais sofrimento às famílias das vítimas, que já foram afligidas pelo alarde de muitas histórias sem fundamento.

Voltamos a afirmar que, na estrutura dessa missão, na qualidade de autoridade investigativa de segurança, somente o BEA está autorizado a divulgar os progressos da investigação. Em consequência, quaisquer informações sobre a investigação de outras fontes é nula e desprovida de credibilidade, caso não tenha sido validada pelo BEA.

A reunião de todas as informações extraídas das gravações de voz e dos parâmetros de voo nos dá agora uma certeza ainda maior de que todos os detalhes serão revelados com relação a esse acidente. Os investigadores de segurança do BEA passarão agora a analisar e validar uma grande quantidade de dados complexos. Trata-se de um trabalho longo e detalhado, e o BEA já anunciou que não divulgará nenhum relatório preliminar antes do verão.

Nesse estágio das investigações, não é possível esboçar conclusão alguma.

Portanto, apesar de respeitarmos nossos próprios especialistas, que seguem crendo no que já acreditavam (a partir das informações disponibilizadas sobre os tubos pitot e o sistema fly-by-wire), confiamos que a analise do BEA produzirá um sólido relatório dos dados e sabemos que o BEA não divulgou nenhuma conclusão nova até aqui.

Reiteramos nossa posição, rejeitamos qualquer informação não validada, e concordamos que ninguém deveria se apressar a tirar conclusões, pelo menos não até que as autoridades desempenhem seu papel e comecem a analisar os dados que ninguém esperava que surgissem.

Apesar de não descartarmos hipótese alguma nem rejeitarmos nenhuma linha de raciocínio, somos absolutamente refratários à miríade de desgostosos que, por mais que os fatos sejam absolutamente distintos em cada situação, sempre repetem o mesmo coro a cada acidente aéreo, culpando os pilotos mortos que são alvos fáceis e não podem se defender. Além disso, não vamos esquecer que quaisquer responsabilidades que recaiam sobre os pilotos são cobertas pela Convenção Internacional. Por isso, a despeito de qual tenha sido a verdadeira falha, as empresas aéreas preferem “erro do piloto”, pois isso significa menos dinheiro saindo de seus bolsos.

A Convenção de Montreal impõe duas categorias de responsabilidades financeiras às empresas aéreas:

– a primeira categoria prevê uma indenização automática e cobre 100.000 unidades de Direito de Saque Especial (US$ 155.000,00). A empresa aérea não pode argumentar contra reivindicações até este montante.

– a segunda categoria lida com a parte da reivindicação que excede o limite de US$ 155.000,00. Uma empresa aérea só pode evitar a responsabilidade por essa parte se provar que não foi negligente nem cometeu qualquer outro tipo de falta. Para evitar ser responsabilizada, a empresa aérea deve provar sua isenção. Na verdade, a negligência de uma empresa aérea pode ser alegada das mais diversas formas, cabendo à empresa refutar cada alegação – um ônus quase impossível de ser cumprido.

Se nós, analistas, podemos errar, erremos então por crer, até prova em contrário, que os pilotos eram confiáveis, honrados e absolutamente sólidos. Lembremo-nos de que eles também eram passageiros a bordo daquele voo, seres humanos que lutaram no melhor de suas habilidades contra as forças ou falhas que os derrubaram. Cremos que pilotos são homens valorosos, conhecedores do peso de seu ofício e cientes de que são responsáveis pelas vidas que transportam. E quando eles dão o melhor de si para sobreviver, mesmo diante de problemas mecânicos e de dificuldades da física, da natureza e do clima, é temerário e indigno culpá-los precipitadamente. É claro que pilotos podem errar, mas não vamos difamá-los com tais alegações sem dispor dos fatos.

Mas ainda que consideremos um único ato, um reflexo tardio ou o enfrentamento das mais adversas condições, esses pilotos mortos, que tantas vezes recebem a culpa por serem alvos indefesos, são na verdade heróis mortos.


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Identificação de DNA no caso do voo 447 da Air France. Ótimo… agora vem a Escolha de Sofia.

ler em Inglês
Para aqueles que podem estar lendo isso em outro idioma, cabe explicar a expressão Escolha de Sofia. A expressão tem sua origem em um romance de mesmo nome, escrito por William Styron, no qual a protagonista, Sofia, é uma mãe forçada a fazer uma escolha impossível: cabe a ela escolher entre a sobrevivência de seu filho ou de sua filha. Não lhe é permitido escolher a ambos, com o sacrifício de sua própria vida (o que seria a escolha da maioria das mães). Caso se recusasse a escolher, os dois morreriam. Por isso, a expressão ‘escolha de Sofia’ tem sido aceita na cultura americana como um paradigma da escolha impossível.

É a mais expressão mais apropriada para nossa atual situação.

Segundo os relatórios da polícia, testes laboratoriais bem sucedidos extraíram amostras viáveis de DNA do tecido de aproximadamente 50 corpos de vítimas do voo 447. A extração comprova que o DNA pode ser utilizado para se identificar os corpos.
Entretanto, no início da semana, dois juízes parisienses encarregados dos resgates, Sylvie Zimmerman e Yann Danielle, decidiram, com relação aos restos mortais, que “com o fim de preservar a dignidade e por respeito aos familiares enlutados, os restos das vítimas que estão muito degradados não devem ser recuperados. Apesar de terem sido realizados testes nos dois corpos recuperados, com o fim de checar a possibilidade de identificação, nenhum outro deverá ser içado”.

Muito embora os juízes tenham decidido que os corpos não devem ser retirados do mar por isso ser muito traumático para as famílias, há familiares que desejam ver seus entes queridos resgatados. Por isso, não ficaremos surpresos se tal decisão for contestada por familiares que considerem ainda mais traumático deixar aqueles que amam no mar; ainda mais agora, quando estão tão perto.

Pode ser que tal decisão não tenha sido definitiva, mas significou que os resgates podem ser suspensos após a realização dos testes.
Apesar de o presidente da associação de familiares, Nelson Marinho, ter dito que “essa operação traz muita esperança às famílias, que agora têm alguma expectativa de encontrar os corpos de seus entes queridos, a fim de lhes dar um funeral adequado”, parece que alguns familiares não querem ter de enfrentar as presentes condições dos corpos.

As famílias e os juízes logo enfrentarão uma escolha de Sofia.

O assunto não seria um problema se:

– os corpos estivessem localizados em um lugar de fácil acesso, de onde não fosse difícil recuperá-los;
– todas as famílias concordassem;
– os testes pudessem ser realizados rapidamente, sob a água e de imediato;
– se os restos estivessem em melhores condições.

Mas nada disso é verdade. Os corpos estão em um lugar obscuro e não ficarão lá por muito tempo, a não ser que algo seja feito para protegê-los. Se não forem recuperados agora, serão provavelmente perdidos para sempre.
As famílias têm opiniões e necessidades distintas. Algumas se encontram transtornadas com o trauma dos resgates, porque os fatos recrudescem o sofrimento iniciado há apenas dois anos. Outras têm alguma esperança de que um funeral normal ajude a encerrar o episódio. Sem dúvida, há aquelas que têm sentimentos profundos, mas não conseguem decidir entre recuperar os corpos ou deixá-los no mar.

Os testes de DNA devem ser feitos em laboratório, levam tempo, e significam que, para uma analise mais precisa, os restos precisam ser recuperados para identificação. E, depois de dois anos imersos em água salgada, sob a mesma pressão suportada pelas caixas pretas, os corpos, que já não se encontram em boas condições, ficarão ainda mais deteriorados com o resgate.

Qualquer que seja a decisão, lembremo-nos de que a lei não é imutável, mas algo vivo. Esperemos, pelo bem das famílias, que aqueles que se sentem aptos a julgar as escolhas dos outros optem, neste caso, por favorecer os desejos de cada família, em vez de se tornarem um obstáculo.

As famílias já sofreram o suficiente.


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Air France 447 DNA I.D. Good-Now Sophie’s Choice Awaits

Read in Portuguese
For those who may be reading this in another language, I must explain the phrase Sophie’s choice. The term originates from a William Styron novel of the same name, in which its protagonist, Sophie, is a mother who is forced to make an impossible choice: whether her son or daughter will be allowed to live. She is not allowed to choose both of them to live and sacrifice her own life (which is what most mothers would choose to do.) If she abstains from choosing, both her children will die. So the phrase Sophie’s choice has been accepted in American culture to mean any impossible choice.

It is completely apropos in our current situation.

According to police reports, completed laboratory tests extracted viable DNA from tissue samples of two of about 50 Air Flight 447 victim remains. The extraction proves that the DNA can be used to provide identification.

However, earlier in the week, two Parisian judges in charge of the recovery, Sylvie Zimmerman and Yann Danielle, decided of the remains, “to preserve their dignity and out of respect for the families who mourn them, the remains of those too badly altered should not be recovered. While tests are carried out on those two bodies already recovered to see if they can be identified, no others will be raised.”

Though judges have ruled the bodies must not be recovered from the sea bed because it is too traumatic for their families, there are families who want their loved ones recovered. So we will not be surprised if any judgment is challenged by family members who find it more traumatic to leave their loved ones at sea, especially while they are now so close at hand. It may be that the stated judgment was not hard and fast, however; it may have been meant only that recovery may be suspended as tests are carried out.

Although the Brazilian victims’ families association president Nelson Marinho said that “This operation is very encouraging for those families who now have some hope of finding their loved ones’ bodies and being able to bury them,” it appears that some families do not want to be faced with the condition of the remains.

The families or the judges will soon be facing a Sophie’s choice.

It would be a non-issue if …

-if the bodies were located in an easily found, easily retrievable location
-if all the families agreed
-if the testing were possible to do on the fly, under water, and immediately
-if the remains were in an appealing condition

But none of this is true. The bodies are in an obscure location, and will probably be transient unless actions are performed to secure them. If they are not recovered now, they will likely be lost forever.

The families have different opinions and needs. Some are shaken by the trauma of recovery because it freshens the grief which is only of two years duration; some hope that a normal burial will provide closure; no doubt there are some who have deep feelings but cannot elect to disturb the remains or abandon them at sea.

The testing of DNA must be done in a lab, and it is time consuming, and means that for the most accurate assessment, the remains must be recovered in order to be identified. And after two years in cold salt water under the same pressure the black boxes underwent, the condition of the remains either is not that nice, and will be less so upon recovery.

Whatever is decided, let us remember the law is not cast in stone, but a living thing. Let us hope for the families’ sakes that those who feel qualified to sit in judgement over others choose, in this case, to facilitate individual family wishes, rather than presenting an obstacle.

The families have been through enough already.


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CVR FDR NOT a Flight of Imagination

Read in Portuguese
In the continuing pursuit of the unvarnished reality behind Air France Flight 447, it does not matter why “Le Figaro” posted rumors and factoids in lieu of truth after the BEA reported that the complete data (flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder) was successfully recovered in Paris.

It does not matter if “Le Figaro” is more concerned with stimulating traffic than it is about veracity, legitimacy and validity in reporting truth.

Perhaps someone at “Le Figaro” is heavily invested in Airbus, and hopes to falsely boost the airline’s reputation. We have no idea of what their motives might be.

What matters are the facts.

What matters is that on recovery of the data from the data containers, the information appears to have been intact (according to the BEA).

What matters is that the data recovery teams were able to open, extract, clean and dry the memory cards, and retrieve the actual data.

There is no reason the data would not support exactly what the ACARS data already indicates, which is that the pitot tubes failed, and started a catastrophic landslide of mechanical events that led inevitably toward systems failure.

We believe the aircraft stalled all the way from 35000 feet to the ocean. If the BEA had considered this, they would have found the plane in weeks.

The plane sent out automated messages from which the sequence of failure has been inferred.

It is an acknowledged FACT that the mechanical systems on board Air France Flight 447 were standard Airbus A330 systems, a “fly by wire” technology which is known to remove responsibility and action from the pilots when in certain situations. A fly-by-wire system modifies manual inputs of the pilot in accordance with control parameters.

The pilots on this type of fly-by-wire system are unable to manually override if faulty data come streaming in from the frozen pitot tubes. The current thinking is that in the Air France Flight 447, the faulty Thales tubes streamed in faulty data to the on board systems. Disaster was all but inevitable.

(In Sept 2009, the FAA sent out a directive indicating that “use of the Thales model has resulted in reports of airspeed indication discrepancies while flying at high altitudes in inclement weather conditions …(that) …could result in reduced control of the airplane.” )

Prior to receiving the content of the black boxes, the collected data pointed to the following series of events:

The Thales pitot tubes are small devices affixed to the plane exterior which measure air speed, but which have a proven tendency to freeze over, which obfuscates the data. Simply put, the Airbus system requires correct data input for the plane to fly correctly. When the frozen-over tubes began sending corrupted data, the system could no longer manage flight. On the 330, there is no way for pilots to manually override the failing systems.

No one expects the black boxes to indicate anything else. What is expected, perhaps is a clarification of data, and a way to study the events in order to prevent a repetition of the same.

The BEA strongly objected to media speculation. In fact, it sent out a press release specifically naming “Le Figaro” as the sensationalist publisher of invalid information. Here is what the BEA said:

According to an article that appeared in « Le Figaro » on the evening of Monday 16 May 2011, the « first elements extracted from the black boxes» would exonerate Airbus in the accident to the A330, flight AF 447, which killed 216 passengers and 12 crew members on 1st June 2009.

Sensationalist publication of non-validated information, whilst the analysis of the data from the flight recorders has only just started, is a violation of the respect due to the passengers and the crew members that died and disturbs the families of the victims, who have already suffered as a result of many hyped-up stories.

The BEA repeats that, in the framework of its mission as a safety investigation authority, it alone has the right to communicate on the progress of the investigation. Consequently, any information on the investigation that comes from another source is null and void if it has not been validated by the BEA.

Collection of all of the information from the audio recordings and from the flight parameters now gives us a high degree of certainty that everything will be brought to light concerning this accident. The BEA safety investigators will now have to analyse and validate a large quantity of complex data. This is long and detailed work, and the BEA has already announced that it will not publish an interim report before the summer.

At this stage of the investigation, no conclusions can be drawn.

So while we do respect our own experts who believe what they already believe (based on what was then available about the pitot tubes and fly-by-wire), we trust the BEA analysis will provide a solid analysis of the data and are aware that they have not released any new conclusions.

We reiterate their emphasis, rejecting non-validated information, and agree no one should be jumping on any band-wagon of opinion, at least not until the authorities apply their proficiencies and start analyzing the data that no one was expecting would surface.

While we are ruling nothing out and closing no doors, we are impervious to the contingent of nay-sayers who—regardless of the drastically different facts of every given situation—chant the same chorus in every aviation event, blaming the dead pilots because they are easy targets and can not defend themselves. Also, let us not ignore that liabilities due to pilot error are capped by International Convention. So no matter what the actual error, Airlines prefer “pilot error” because it means less coming out of their pockets.

The Montreal Convention imposes two tiers of liability on airlines:
-the first tier provides automatic compensation, deals with claims up to 100,000 Special Drawing Rights ($155,000 US). The airline has no defense against claims up to this amount.
-the second tier deals with the portion of a claim exceeding the $155,000 limit. An airline can avoid liability of this portion only by proving it was not negligent or otherwise at fault. To avoid the liability the airline must prove a negative. There are, in fact, infinite ways an airline’s negligence can be involved, all of which the airline must disprove-a burden which is next to impossible to meet.

If we as armchair analysts must err, let us err believing until proven otherwise, that the pilots were dependable, reputable, and rock-solid; let us remember that they too were passengers aboard the flight, human beings who fought as best they could, against whatever forces or failures brought them down. We believe pilots are valiant men who know the weight of their office, who know they are responsible for the lives they carry, and when they do their human best to survive, even in face of overwhelming physics, nature, weather, or mechanical failure, it is rash and unworthy of us to blame them precipitously. Sure, pilots can err, but let us not tar them with that brush without the facts.

But for a single action, delayed reflex or overwhelming odds, those dead pilots who are so often blamed because they are defenseless targets, are themselves dead heroes.


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New Lows for Air India Crash Compensation

Compensation disbursal has hit a new low. It was recently published on the Khaleej Times site that Air India’s insurance company is calculating compensation claims based on ‘the loss of livelihood” rather than “loss of life.’ Loss of life according to the Montreal Convention (in terms of Indian currency) amounts to nearly Rs7.5million. Advocate and solicitor Hoshang D Nanavati, who represents Air India’s legal counsel, is saying they are settling cases where the issue of applying 100,000 SDR (Special Drawing Rights) equivalent to $160,000 did not arise.

Compensation is complicated—a complicated process, and it is frequently misunderstood.

Families understand, or are made to believe that soon the carrier will be coming around to pay no less than $100,000 SDRS less the amount of the advance they received. This is not always the case. If the emergency advance was $10,000 and that 100,000SDRs equates to $151,000 US dollars, the family is entitled to the $141,000 that is still due under the treaty ONLY IF THEY CAN PROVIDE THE DOCUMENTATION. To qualify, documents must show that the person who died had a life span long enough to earn at least that amount based on the decedent’s profile, hence the term above, “loss of livelihood.” It’s always been my opinion that the Montreal Treaty, as other treaties/conventions before it, is not intended to protect the passenger. It’s to protect the operator of the airline from being sued for more than the amount called for in the treaty. The 100,000 SDRs is not a right, it’s a cap, the maximum that, in addition to a small amount for baggage, the operator will have to pay each family of a decedent unless negligence is proved. (Negligence can creep into the picture in a number of ways, such as lack of maintenance, or inferior pilot training leading to pilot error.)

The insurance companies and lawyers commonly require a global release upon payment of any funds, so even if they paid the maximum per the treaty, if more culpable parties turn up, those who signed too early have signed away their rights. If a global release was required before operator paid the compensation, all doors would be shut to sue anyone else later found responsible, such as the manufacturer of a component or the manufacturer of the aircraft.

Keep in mind that we don’t even have a final report on the cause of the crash, other than bits and pieces about pilot error. Other responsible parties may turn up.

The loss of a decedent is handled by profile. It is NOT generic. The loss is based on the person’s age, employment, if not employed, what did he do when he was employed, then how many children, wife/husband, who else depended on the decedent for support, was he the bread winner for how many? All these factors play into what make determining compensation complicated. But in this circumstance, that cap is not a baseline, it is a ceiling.

And unless you have a top earner, there is nothing to negotiate beyond the economics which depend on the country (in this case, India.) And then there’s pain and suffering, and how each country handles it. In India, it is possible that pain and suffering is not even considered. In some countries, there may be a fixed amount for pain and suffering; or it may be banned all together. What happens to the family member in India who was not a top earner?

For those families who are trying to hold out for the compensation they deserve, for authorities to say cases are delayed because of pending case opposition is just a typical delay tactic. There’s always the ambition on the part of airline and insurance lawyers that the families who are most in need of cash will capitulate and accept lesser compensation. The longer the lawyers take, the more red tape and loopholes the families have to weave through, the longer the families have to struggle along, make their bills, and stretch out whatever interim compensation the law has allowed. The more likely they are to capitulate and accept less.

When the Indian Civil Aviation Minister assures speedy disbursal of maximum compensation, if he is thinking of his constituents, is he referring to maximum compensation to take care of widows and orphans, or that completely different number that the insurance companies and airlines would like to redefine as “maximum,” in other words, the least possible that they can legally get the victims to accept?

The Montreal Convention is a treaty that governs international aviation incidents. The airline is automatically liable for up to 100,000 Special Drawing Rights I mentioned above. But an airline is liable to claims over that limit if it is unable to prove that the crash was not due to the negligence or wrongful act or omission of the company or any of its servants, or that the crash was solely due to the negligence or wrongful act or omission of a third party.

If there is no cap, because of the certain pilot error, shouldn’t that victim, even if a low earner, at least get the cap amount? Their life has value. Every life has value.

Air India’s parent company, National Aviation Company of India Ltd said that next week they will make public the steps toward safety taken during the past year. “We are now preparing a whole list of what all actions we have taken. That should come out in public domain in a week’s time.”

That is a very good thing. I look forward to seeing the list of actions taken that comprise improvements, for is also the selfsame list of practices which were negligent in 2010. Every item on that list should be financially compensated as an action which was denied the victims of the Mangalore crash.

I wish there were some way to empower the struggling families to see that there is a light at the end of the tunnel if they do not cave in to lesser offers. The pain and suffering, the loss of life, the decreased quality of life, and the loss of income are very real. They have more than the emotional weight which the families are suffering, but also a physical reality reflected in concrete family circumstances.

The families are living through a terrible ordeal, and the song and dance that the victims are being forced to endure is unnecessarily cruel punishment.There is no question that the airline and insurance companies bear the responsibility; they should just stop playing a numbers game, stop extending the misery, and just provide the families the compensation they deserve.


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Wonder Not Why ATC Sleeps-It’s 2 a.m.

There is a lot of buzz going on right now with so many air traffic controllers caught sleeping on the job. Everyone is lowering the boom on these individuals, and perhaps it is rightly so. And yet it seems to me that it is not a complete coincidence that suddenly in 2011, multiple air traffic controllers are caught sleeping on the job. Has this never happened before? Has no one ever noted it?

This is in addition to an increase in controller errors. However, the increase in controller errors is (supposedly) a statistical glitch–not more errors actually but more reportage due to a new non-punative reporting system.

It makes me wonder what has led to the circumstance of lone air traffic controllers manning all-night shifts. Has this been going on for decades? Or is this a recent development of economic cutbacks and our changing fuel economy, and our highly qualified personnel may be fighting to keep a position even on the swing shift, as job alternatives dwindle.

Why is there an evening shift at all when the airlines have been combining flights and canceling flights, and rearranging flights and consolidating fights for economy’s sake? If the fact that an airport with minimal evening traffic chooses to have a lone overnight ATC shift, the act is practically a lagniappe. And if that is the case, then how sad it is that an act of extended service has turned to bite those offering the service.

We do not put a lifeguard on the beach during the night when there are no swimmers, when swimming in dark waters is foolish. And yet, if we did place a lifeguard on that beach, we would not expect him to sleep. But would we expect him to stare out at the waters all night with no concession to human biorhythm? Is that not somewhat cruel? By the way, FAA’s rules forbid a controller from doing anything not directly related to air traffic control.

When I hear the head of the FAA Air Traffic Organization Hank Krakowski has stepped down, it leads me to suspect that there is some scheduling pattern or policy that is directly attributable to him, something he did to disrupt the culture of air traffic control, that may be behind the significant coincidence of six (or more) sleeping ATControllers. I do not know if his stepping down is typical bureaucratic scapegoating, if he is doing the honorable thing because he’s in charge and the buck stops with him, or if he is truly responsible for some policy change that has led to the sleeping ATC.

There are solutions, but they won’t be solutions today’s citizen of “instant everything” will like. There will be either the hiring more than just two controllers to turn night to day; or there will be (eventually) curtailing night flights and a loss of 24 hour conveniences.

Blown Lap Joints and Other Points of Fatigue

The older 737’s which ruptured their five-foot tops (at the lap joints) are just a drop in the proverbial bucket. Or, if you will, the canary in the cave. Because they are a sign of what is to come, if Boeing, and in fact ALL plane makers, don’t step up the inspection guidelines for metal fatigue in 15 year old planes. The FAA is mandating initial and repetitive electromagnetic inspections “to detect cracking in a specific part of the aircraft that cannot be spotted with visual inspection.” The FAA Emergency Airworthiness Directive pdf can be found here.

Sure, since the fuselage crack on the Southwest 737 on April 1, older model 737’s have demonstrated a propensity toward metal fatigue. On that particular plane, in March, eight instances were found of cracking in the frame and six cracked stringer clips which hold the skin. To be sure, Southwest did the right thing by grounding its 80 737s and checking them all because it turned out that five of those inspected had cracks in the same location. Those 18-inch roof sections are being repaired according to the recommendations of Boeing and the NTSB with a large aluminum patch

But what about 15 year old 757s? They should put all the older planes of comparable cycles—let’s not limit this to Boeing!— What about 15 year old Airbuses? —under scrutiny for metal fatigue. Are they not just as likely to blow as a 737?



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Politics and the Art and Science of Crash Investigation

Should art be mentioned here? Art is the expression or application of human creative skill and imagination. Surely this applies to investigation. It is only through imagining the sequence of what happened that what actually happened can be determined. Theoretically, scientific experimentation takes place in a vacuum, or at least in a neutral area where the laws of nature can be observed to run in a natural fashion, after which, conclusions are drawn. Attempts are made for the hypothesis to be untainted by factors such as “opinion,” “bias,” and “prejudice.” But it could not exist without human imagination.

But imagination is far from “imaginary.” Accident investigation is not scientific experimentation, but it is supposed to be based, like science, on handling conclusions based on neutrally observed but hard facts. The problem of course, is that the accidents being investigated do not occur in the careful measured neutrality of a lab, but in the messy, busy, interactivity of the real world. The search for the truth is a crucial thing, one of interest not only to the victims or families of the victims, but also the insurance companies, banks, aircraft manufacturers, airlines, future airline passengers…the list grows. The climate in which investigations take place is far from neutral, in spite of attempts for investigators to be professional.

If you look at the Comoros crash you can see the effects of clashes between the governmental institutions of Comoros and France, replete with name-calling, bias, and politics. This is equally true in the Air France 447 case, where political pressures exert invisible pressures. Consider the stake the country has in Air France, and in Airbus. In any investigation, it may be that the lives and careers of some very powerful people hinge on how an investigation goes, and even more so when a country like France adds the aspect of criminal proceedings.

The well-known world regulatory organizations over aviation industry trade groups (IATA, ICAO, AEA, ATA) have developed highly regulated procedures for investigation. We can only hope that the highly regulated and complex process of investigations can continue in as even a keel as possible, in spite of the turbulence coming from all interested parties. The world waits for answers, but politics inevitably set the stage, and like the observed but unseen air currents in weather, play a part, whether invisible or obvious. While there are some protections in place, (for example, NTSB reports can not be used as evidence lest the integrity investigation be compromised), we can never fully know what goes on behind the scenes.


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Limbo

They say that time heals all wounds. And in a sense that may be true even for the families who lost loved ones in a plane crash, as long as we can interpret “healing” to mean that time eventually eases the sharpness of the pain of loss. And while that degree of healing is something that happens with people because our nervous systems are built for survival and allow us to adapt to even agonizing loss, the same thing is not true of mechanical equipment. While people bathed in time may get a little better, black boxes, radar components and computers that sit in salt water for a long period of time do not get better. In fact a scientist could present us a ratio of the time an item spends in ocean water : accessibility of evidence in terms of a diminishing ratio of accessibility. Or in other words, the longer evidence soaks in salt water, the more diminished our capacity to analyze it. Not that the same ratio applies across the board, of course–the frailty of paper in salt water is not the same as metal. And rice paper would differ from bond which would differ from cardstock. But in general, one can certainly say the longer evidence sits in the ocean, the more degraded that item will be. Ocean-time won’t heal evidence; but it sure helps damage or destroy it. So any evidence that we find now has been quietly degrading for almost 2 years.

So now we have the news that the fourth search for the black boxes has turned up something even more stupendous–they found identifiable remains. Great hosannas and praise by the submarine-load is being lavished by the audience of a world who is transfixed by the news. How amazing it is that on this fourth search for a needle in a haystack, after two years time and ocean currents, and countless storms and tides, with each passing moment making discovery that much less likely, after all this, a needle is found. But who is the world praising? The searchers, certainly. The searchers have as they say these days “mad” skills. But let’s not praise the sponsors of the search.

If not for the sponsors quitting, this discovery would have been found two years ago, or sometime between then and now. Because let us not forget the sponsors of the search, Air France and Airbus—both of whom could well afford to continue—have THREE TIMES quit. Quit the search, leaving key questions unanswered. Quit the search, the black boxes with their priceless knowledge, unfound. Quit the search, and left the families dissatisfied, and without closure.

Nevermind that this is such a timely find. Days after a judge takes the high road of French law and declares Airbus and Air France open to a criminal investigation for the crash of Air France 447, suddenly we have such a “feel good” media moment. Bodies found. Good job, searchers. Bad job Air France. Bad job Airbus.

If you had not given up, (and let’s face it, your reasons were purely financial,) what is lost would have been less dispersed by currents and time. And perhaps what is more important, the families would not be having their wounds reopened. Because these are not live family members found. This will not be true joy and true relief. This is just re-opening that sense of grief and pain, which is torturous after the anesthetic of two years. For those families whose lost are still lost. And for those families now able to receive their two lost loved ones, the grief and pain will be renewed. It will force them to relive the deaths all over again. Because even when they’re found, they’re still lost.

The question remains, why did you ever quit the search? This Pandora’s box of pain could have been closed and laid to rest by now, if you had not quit. Shame on you.

Costuma-se dizer que o tempo cura todas as feridas. Em certo sentido, isso até pode ser verdade para as famílias que perderam entes queridos em acidentes aeronáuticos, contanto que interpretemos essa “cura” como um alívio à agudeza da dor e do sofrimento. E embora esse nível de cura seja algo possível às pessoas porque nosso sistema nervoso é projetado para sobreviver, permitindo que nos adaptemos à mais agonizante perda, o mesmo não é verdade para equipamentos mecânicos. Ainda que pessoas banhadas pelo tempo possam ficar um pouco melhores, caixas-pretas, peças de radar e computadores abandonados em água salgada por um longo tempo não ficam nem um pouco melhor. Na verdade, um cientista poderia nos apresentar uma relação em função do tempo que um item permanece em baixo d’água, demonstrando uma taxa decrescente de acessibilidade das evidências. Em outras palavras, quanto mais tempo uma evidência fica submersa, menor é nossa capacidade de analisá-la. Isso não significa que uma mesma taxa se aplique a todas as evidências – é claro que a fragilidade do papel na água não se equipara à do metal. De modo geral, contudo, pode-se afirmar que quanto mais tempo um item permanecer no mar, mas degradado ele ficará. O tempo no mar não trará cura às evidências, mas certamente ajudará a danificá-las ou destruí-las. Logo, qualquer evidência que encontremos agora terá enfrentado uma lenta degradação por quase dois anos.

Agora somos surpreendidos pela notícia de que a quarta busca pelas caixas-pretas encontrou algo ainda mais estupendo: corpos que podem ser identificados. Graças e louvores pelas descobertas submarinas têm sido dadas pelo público mundial que se mantém atento às notícias. Como é incrível que nessa quarta busca de uma agulha no palheiro, já após dois anos, com correntes oceânicas e diversas tempestades e marés, e com o passar do tempo tornando qualquer descoberta cada vez mais improvável, uma agulha tenha sido encontrada. E quem está sendo saudado pelo mundo? As equipes de busca, com certeza. Elas demonstraram habilidades verdadeiramente fenomenais. Mas não vamos enaltecer os patrocinadores das buscas.

Se os patrocinadores não tivessem desistido, essas descobertas teriam sido feitas há dois anos, ou em algum momento entre a data do acidente e hoje em dia. Por isso, não vamos esquecer que os patrocinadores das buscas, Air France e Airbus, que bem podiam ter arcado com sua continuidade, abandonaram-nas por três vezes. Abandonaram as buscas, deixando importantes perguntas sem resposta. Abandonaram as buscas, deixando perdidas as caixas-pretas e suas valiosas informações. Abandonaram as buscas, deixando famílias insatisfeitas e sem uma conclusão.

Não importa que essa descoberta seja tão oportuna. Dias após um juiz aplicar os rigores da lei francesa e declarar que a Airbus e a Air France podem ser investigadas criminalmente pelo acidente com o voo 447 da Air France, temos de repente um “agradável” momento na mídia. Corpos são encontrados. Bom trabalho, equipes de busca. Grande falha, Air France. Grande fracasso, Airbus.

Se vocês não tivessem desistido (e, sejamos francos, seus motivos foram puramente financeiros), as perdas teriam sido menos dispersadas pelas correntes marítimas e pelo tempo. E talvez, ainda mais importante, as famílias não teriam suas feridas reabertas. Como não estamos falando do encontro de sobreviventes, essas descobertas não trarão verdadeiro alívio e verdadeira felicidade. Elas apenas servirão para recrudescer aquela sensação de dor e sofrimento, que é uma tortura após dois anos de anestesia. Para aquelas famílias cujos entes queridos não serão encontrados, e para as demais que agora receberão os restos de seus familiares, a dor e o sofrimento serão renovados. Isso as forçará a reviver as mortes mais uma vez.

Porque, mesmo encontrados, eles continuam perdidos.

A dúvida permanece: “Por que vocês desistiram das buscas?” Se vocês não tivessem desistido, essa Caixa de Pandora de dor já poderia ter sido fechada e enterrada a essa altura. Vocês deviam se envergonhar!

Ethiopia Flight 409-Pilot Error or something More?

From the Official Report :

The Captain only had 188 hours on the B737-700/800.
The 1st officer had 350 hours on the B737-700/800.

I’m sorry to partially disagree with the opinion of those who believe the Ethiopia Flight 409 is an open and shut pilot-error case. True, it does not look like there’s much B737 experience.

But lack of experience is no grounds for lack of skills or reckless operation.

Besides, I find hard to accept the fact that two pilots deliberately flew direct to the heart of a super cell. There must be a technical issue there such as inoperative weather radar (I mean that became inoperative after takeoff). Even a “green” pilot knows better than take a direct heading to a massive thunderstorm.

Although if we decide to label the two pilots as “inexperienced” that means questioning all the training/promotion process of Air Ethiopia.

What does the Air Ethiopia OPERATIONS MANUAL protocol assign as a pilot’s training minimum qualifications for Captain and for First Officers?


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Erosion of Safety or Common Sense?

Last year I was in a plane seat for about 230k miles. The year before, at least that many or more. I believe in being safe up there. Personally, I have no personal problem with body scans. I liked that movie, Modern Problems. I might not mind glowing in the dark. Maybe it would save on electricity.

Let’s think for a minute about the irony of the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) mandate, the government agency whose job it is to protect the nation’s transportation systems to ensure freedom of movement for people and commerce. These Heightened Security Measures are an intrusion on what we expect of what would still like to call a free country.

Are we naive to believe that we deserve safety measure options which do not insult our privacy? Let me ask all of you out there. Shouldn’t there be an option for people who want to opt out?

If you’ve forgotten the situation, just google the phrase “Express Jet pilot Michael Roberts” and you will find plenty of news about this pilot who may become the poster child or figurehead of a grassroots backlash against airport screening technology.

He’s the pilot who flew through Memphis International Airport for years until the TSA told him he could not fly if he did not go through the new scans and be subjected to a full body pat down.

See that charming graphic sample above? It is not Michael Roberts. But whoever it is, it is certainly an intrusion.

(The image is not supposed to be recorded, according to the TSA) yet the scanners do have that capability. Minors in the UK are protected from these scans because of fears of child pornography. Adults do not have that protection. Seems like they should.

And purely in an emotional sense, the eerie images themselves look as if the subject were bathed in radiation, which would jump start all kinds of cancers, make ones hair fall out and have assorted negative health effects, especially over time. Which type of health effects would depend on whether an X-ray backscatter vs millimeter wave were used. In 78 US airports, 247 so-called backscatter machines are installed made by Rapiscan Systems which expose a person to about 0.0025 millirem of radiation (239 are the other type of machine so I can’t tell about those.) What if they malfunction? What if Rapiscan or components goof. People are flawed, we make mistakes. What if like the Cedars Sinai radiation cases, they put out 7-8 times the radiation they are supposed to? TSA agents will get the worst of it. And pilots and airport personnel who have to undergo these scans, sometimes daily. So what if it is not like the immediate disaster in Japan; long term regular exposure—like 4 years worth of weekly scans—could be just as bad, or worse, maybe 50 years down the road like Mesothelioma.

So one of these scanners was installed at the Memphis International airport and in this (supposedly) free country, when a well-respected pilot objected, he was prevented from going to his job. Rather than my going off on living in a totalitarian state, let me here paste the link to his blog.

And here are Michael’s own words on the subject:

Michael Roberts:

We just filed an amendment to our complaint with the District Court in D.C. – nothing earth shattering, but it’s got us back in the news a little bit recently. I also gave testimony to a Texas state legislature committee yesterday regarding a series of bills they’re looking at to outlaw TSA’s shenanigans at the state level. The fight goes on, whether the major media care to acknowledge it or not.

Don’t Hold Your Breath in the Lavatory

Rest assured we still have opinions, and believe this important stuff should be widely published and easily accessible but we probably won’t be posting too many press releases any more since Google tends to frown on that. So we didn’t update the news about Docket No. FAA-2011-0157

This reminds me of one of those “THIS IS HOW YOUR TAX DOLLARS ARE SPENT” parodies.

They’ve ruled on oxygen generators in airline bathrooms. It’s just important to remember now, if you happen to be in the bathroom during an aviation crisis, if there’s an oxygen crisis, you better get back to your seat pronto, at least if you are fond of breathing. They’re taking the oxygen mask out of the lavatory. So is it a security threat, a warning, or has there been chatter? At the Nolan Law Group website, David Evans (Aviation Safety Journal) speculates about
EMERGENCY OXYGEN ORDERED REMOVED FROM LAVATORIES

Afriqiyah Airways A330 crash investigation

The insurers have had months to move this case along.
They had months to compensate the families of victims. Have they done so?
Word is that they have not.

The one year anniversary of the crash is on May 12.
Look at what we have. No compensation.
Look at the debris field. Do we have spoliation of evidence? Common elements like weather wreak havoc on evidence. Just look at what rust does and you have a pretty good idea of the kind of details can be erased by weather. So if the evidence has been defaced by exposure to the elements, how might spoilation of evidence affect the case? No doubt it will result in a series of failed attempts. Failure to secure evidence. Inability to analyze degraded evidence. Obfuscated results.

For crash investigators, fresh evidence can be as easy to read as a book. Waiting until the evidence is unintelligible leaves us with no Rosetta Stone to help us get to the cause. Another missed opportunity to make aviation a little safer. Another missed opportunity to bring closure to the families who were immeasurably damaged by this crash.


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Airbus Yesterday, Air France Today: Justice Wheels Grind Slowly

George’s Point of View


Thursday’s news was that Airbus is being investigated for Air France Flight 447. Airbus officials made a public statement that they “strongly disapprove” of the decision, (no doubt!) but would comply with the investigation. Note to readers: This is law, not option. So let’s take that cooperation with a grain of salt, shall we? When the judge tells you that you’re being investigated, you say, “Yes Ma’am.”

March 20 is the date the search starts again, more on that below.

So yesterday, Thursday, was Airbus’s turn in court–
Today, Friday, Air France has been called in its turn before a judge in France to get its hand slapped. Or get in preparation to get its hand slapped, in ten years or so. Anyway, Air France is also on the mat.

Or, as they call it in France, (to be purists here) Mise en examen

This is a criminal investigation. It is a matter of FRENCH LAW. As it was explained to me, “Every air accident is also a criminal matter, and a judge is appointed to oversee the investigation and follow up including charges if any to be filed.”

So what was the problem with the flight? It crashed. It killed lots of people No one knows for sure why. (Though to some of us it seems obvious.) No black boxes, right? But we’re not idiots. We have plenty of information about what was going on. Not everything, of course, but we have the messages sent by the plane’s computers. They reflect faulty readings which are believed to be the result of faulty pitot tube readings and a series of system failures. We would have a rounder picture of events if the black boxes, which hold crucial information were not misplaced somewhere in the Atlantic. They think they know where it is, (or at least they say they know or say they think they know) based on drift and whatnot (heavy on the whatnot.) But millions have been spent finding this needle in a stack of needles under the ocean, in a submarine mountain range. Nearly 30 million dollars has been spent on the search for the black boxes so far. The cost of the new search is shared by Airbus and Air France and will cost 12.5 million.

What about the details about the mise en examen preliminary manslaughter charges filed Thursday against Airbus? They were filed in French court by Judge Sylvie Zimmerman over the 2009 deaths of 228 people aboard Air France Flight 447. Fatal accidents automatically prompt criminal probes running concurrent with civil investigations, but a couple of points which may not be obvious to Americans not versed in French Justice are that the charges may be issued pending further investigation, and may hinge on the black boxes which have not been found and may never be found; AND the dual investigation slows things down. That may be one item that delayed the Concord trial 10 years after the accident. You’ve seen pictures of a guy walking around with a tiny ankle-biting dog chewing on the hem of one pants leg? Well, instead of a chihuahua, picture the entire french justice system. Might tend to slow down ones progress, do you think?

So Air France will be in court Friday, ie today. Watch the news, because what we saw yesterday about Airbus, we’ll see today about Air France. I hope the families are getting some satisfaction from this, because it is going to be a long (long long long) time before they feel like they’re actually being heard, not herded into obscurity.


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Diligent Kudos to AeroMexico for Averting a Disaster

What: Aeromexico Boeing 737-700 scheduled from Costa Rica to Mexico City
Where: Costa Rica
When: Mar 12, 2011
Who: 2 (drunk) Mexican pilots, 101 passengers
Why: Saturday on arrival at the airport in Costa Rica for their shift, these two AeroMexico pilots complained of nausea. They probably had big heads too, since they had attended some kind of drunken revelry 7 hours before in San Jose, which is not long enough for the alcohol to be metabolized out of their systems. They were apparently intending to fly their shifts, but some eagle-eyed AeroMexico personnel correctly evaluated their condition. One of them refused the alcohol test, but not the other. Neither was allowed to fly, and both were suspended. The flight was delayed until replacement pilots (sober ones) were found to take the cockpit. Passengers were compensated for the delay.

In George’s Point of View

Is March the month for drinking? A case was just brought to our attention yesterday, and though it is not aviation, it is frighteningly similar, though I could argue they were completely different. But then, I could argue anything even if I’m not a lawyer.

The case I’m talking about is that of the BOLT Driver Arrested for DUI. Bolt is not an airline, but a bus division. So what is the similarity? There it was bussing (trucking) down the road when it was pulled over and the driver cited for tailgating, and driving in the wrong lane before he got his driving under the influence AND his license taken away. He was caught, sadly, not before his shift, and not by crew, but by passengers who clearly feared for their lives and called 911 from inside the bus, as the driver was either weaving, or napping or drinking, or all of the above. Someone had seen his pocket flask.

Okay, the obvious similarities are drunks at the wheel of communal transit. Both were caught before serious damage occurred. The difference—and this is crucial—are that the BOLT bus driver was allowed to take his shift, regardless of his condition. He put everyone aboard that bus at serious risk.

So kudos to AeroMexico. Even though all you’re going to hear about it is grousing from individuals complaining of the delay, your diligence probably saved the lives of 110 passengers.

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